Mueller's Obstruction Case Against Trump Is A Slam Dunk

Donald Trump and his legal team have apparently ended any and all discussions about his potential interview with the Special Counsel, Robert Mueller. Ostensibly, the reason for the breakdown in those negotiations is the President's fury over the raid on Michael Cohen's offices, home, and hotel room. But I doubt that Mueller ever really believed he was going to get that interview anyway and it appears that he was well prepared for that eventuality.

NBC News is reporting that Mueller will now very quickly submit a report on the obstruction case, perhaps before the end of May. The case for obstruction has been strong and growing for many months now. Trump himself admitted on national television that he fired Comey because of the Russia investigation. According to NBC, the Mueller report will focus on four specific areas: "His intent to fire former FBI Director James Comey; his role in the crafting of a misleading public statement on the nature of a June 2016 Trump Tower meeting between his son and Russians; Trump’s dangling of pardons before grand jury witnesses who might testify against him; and pressuring Attorney General Jeff Sessions not to recuse himself from the Russia investigation".

The core of any obstruction case is determining the intent of the accused. If Mueller had any doubt about his ability to prove Trump's intent, he would continue to make an effort to interview Trump or exert more pressure on certain witnesses who could provide such insight. The fact that Mueller feels strongly enough about his case to release the report without any input from Trump himself or further investigation indicates that he must have a very strong case. That must include damaging testimony from direct witnesses to the various events.

If Mueller didn't already have a slam-dunk case, there would be no rush to produce this report as Trump keeps providing more evidence for his obstruction every day. Today, for example, he not only engaged in witness intimidation against Comey but, by announcing his plan to pardon Scooter Libby, he once again clearly dangles a potential pardon in front of potential witnesses against him. Libby's sentence had long ago been commuted and there has been no public outcry for his pardon. Trump clearly, and again transparently, intends this pardon to be a signal to the witnesses in his case.

Moreover, Mueller would be a fool to submit an obstruction of justice report at this point if it wasn't a slam dunk. That would virtually guarantee the end of his entire investigation, essentially providing the ammunition for Trump to fire him. However, having an extremely solid case and sending the report to Rosenstein as quickly as possible will somewhat inoculate both of them from being capriciously fired by the President. The strong obstruction case actually protects the ongoing investigation into collusion and potential financial crimes.

The real question now is what Rosenstein will do with the report once he receives it. The obvious answer is to refer it over to Congress where the details will assuredly be leaked. Trump and his team must also realize this as well, making the next two months one of the most dangerous times for our country and our democracy since Watergate.