A Northam Defeat Would Only Be Existential For Establishment Democrats

The vote for Governor in Virginia is not the existential threat that ever-worrying Democrats are fretting about. Ralph Northam's defeat would surely be a body blow for Democrats but even if that were to happen, it is expected that Democrats will still do well on down-ballot races in that state. In addition, Democrats are looking to take full control of the Washington state legislature and capture the governor's mansion in New Jersey.

But, for the establishment Democrats, a Ralph Northam defeat might really be an existential event. His defeat would signal an end to the remnants of Clintonian Third Way politics that tried to merge center right economic policies with center left social policies. Correspondingly, it will probably assure the ascendancy of the Sanders-Warren progressive wing of the party. If Northam loses, we will hear the progressives say that Tom Perriello would have won, just as we hear that Sanders would have beaten Trump. And there is good cause to believe both those statements. On the other hand, a small Northam win will just exacerbate the civil war within the party and merely delay the inevitable takeover by progressives.

After Hillary Clinton and Jon Ossoff, another devastating loss in Virginia will finally force the Democratic party to finally clear the field for a real progressive in the next important election and see if a more populist message can make inroads in traditional Republican territories that would seem ripe for the progressive economic message.