Republicans Gamble Future On Gerrymander And Voting Restrictions

One of the biggest reasons for the Republican party's increasing move to the right is the gerrymandering that they were able to exploit in the wake of the 2010 election and census not only at the federal level but also at the state level. In subsequent elections, there have been numerous cases where Democrats win nearly half the votes across a state yet still end up with a small legislative minority that is not nearly indicative of the votes they won. And because the US Senate gives so much weight and power to smaller states, Democratic Senatorial candidates can actually win 20 million more votes than their Republicans but still end up as a minority of 46 in that chamber.

With the success of Republican gerrymandering has also come increasing restrictions on voting. For this election year, 17 states will have enacted some sort of new restriction on voting, ranging from photo IDs, early voting cutbacks, and stricter registration requirements. Some of these changes are not trivial. For example, it is estimated that fully 9% of the electorate in Wisconsin, about 300,000 registered voters, do not have a photo ID that would be valid to vote. The Republicans in the state legislature openly admit that they believe these restrictions will hurt Democratic voters and help Republicans win elections. And, in the short term, they are probably right.

But as a long term strategy, this is doomed to failure. Republicans already lose the growing minority vote by significant margins and those minorities understand that these restrictions specifically target them. So Republicans are gambling an enormous amount on maintaining control of state legislatures. If and when they lose control, Democrats will lift these voting restrictions and the resulting flood of "new" Democratic voters will make things even more difficult for Republicans. Similarly, if that new Democratic legislature is able to redraw existing districts more equitably, that will put Republicans at an even greater disadvantage. Once the dam is broken, the floodgates will open. Republicans will become a small minority party and it will be a long, hard road to rebuild. And that may happen to Republicans sooner than they think.