Trump's Paris Decision Was All About Shoring Up His Base As Russia Probe Closes In

Trump's decision to pull out of the Paris Climate Agreement has far less to do with climate change or the US economy and far more to do with shoring up his base in preparation for not only Comey's testimony next week but also the expanding Russian investigation in general as it engulfs more and more White House advisers and inches ever closer to the President himself.

Trump's rationale for leaving the agreement as outlined in his speech yesterday was full of lies and distortions. He falsely claimed that the greenhouse gas reductions were compulsory and, citing a study created by opponents of the pact, claimed that the deal would cost nearly three million jobs in the next eight years. He also claimed that China and India could build as many coal-fired power plants as they want, while the US would not be allowed to build any, essentially, he says, moving coal jobs from the US to China and India. The reality is that the agreement restricts no country from building more coal-fired plants but doing so will not really help those countries reach their voluntary targets. Trump falsely described those targets as mandatory which they are not. The greater reality is that there will be hardly any coal-fired plants built in China, India, or the United States simply because the economics no longer work.

Now you can never underestimate the possibility that Trump's decisions are made out of ignorance and spite and it is quite possible that this is one of those. But this decision has Bannon written all over it. And it is worth noting that Bannon, Kushner, and Priebus were sent home early from Trump's foreign trip in order to set up the war room to deal with the Russia investigation. More than Kushner, Bannon understands that the battle ahead for Trump will be a political one, probably much more so than a legal one. And that means shoring up that 35%-43% of the country that will support Trump no matter what. To me, this action on climate change is the first step in shoring up that support.

That thought was reinforced by Trump's bizarre outreach and attack on Democrats during his speech, saying that he is reaching out to them to come forward and help him craft a "better deal" on climate. That idea is absurd on its face. The agreement was specifically crafted so that it was totally in the realm of the executive branch and therefore needed no Senate treaty vote. Democrats had and will have no role in the negotiation simply because it is between us and the rest of the world.

In addition, Trump can not legally leave the agreement for another few years, so yesterday's announcement was largely meaningless. As I wrote earlier, the world will continue to act on climate change and China will fill the void of leadership left by the US in this area. In the US, the withdrawal from the agreement will have far less real impact than what happens in the EPA and the Energy Department in the near future.

In one week, James Comey will be testifying under oath that the President has lied in numerable statements to the public and has engaged in multiple attempts to obstruct justice. Trump continues to try and intimidate witnesses, claiming that Comey and Brennan have falsely testified to Congress. Two days ago he tweeted, "So now it is reported that the Democrats, who have excoriated Carter Page about Russia, don't want him to testify. He blows away their case against him & now wants to clear his name by showing "the false or misleading testimony by James Comey, John Brennan..." Witch Hunt!" (The silence from Republicans responding to this intimidation and defamation of long-time public servants is deafening.) In addition, NBC reported yesterday that Trump himself may have had a secret meeting with Russian Ambassador Kislyak, along with Kushner and Sessions, way back in April of last year. If true, it would be yet another meeting that Kushner and Sessions have lied about and the first directly linking Trump to the Russians. None of this is good news for Trump.

I would expect Trump to revert back to more of his faux economic nationalism as well, much like he did shortly after the inauguration. This means that we will hear more about the millions of jobs he will save and the great economy he will build. These will be as empty as his statement yesterday that his tax plan was moving briskly through Congress - there is not even a bill on either floor right now.

A couple of other thoughts as well. First, increased global warming will provide easier access to the Arctic mineral and oil reserves for the Russians, whose entire economy essentially depends on oil revenue. Any delay in converting to natural gas and renewables extends the shelf life for oil prices, benefitting again Russia and Saudi Arabia, two countries that Trump clearly favors. And lastly, the re-emergence of Bannon coincides with especially damaging leaks about Kushner's role with the Russians. It would not be surprising if Bannon was behind many of those leaks.

Bannon, probably more than Trump, realizes the existential trouble that Trump is in. The GOP legislative agenda is totally stalled and the President is getting swamped by the Russian scandal. If things don't change in the next few months, Republicans in Congress may start to abandon Trump and focus on their own survival in 2018. That could mean that impeachment actually starts getting floated as a real possibility. Shoring up his support now is the best way for Trump to hold Republicans at bay. With a damaged Kushner and Bannon in charge of the President's defense, we can expect more economic nationalism and more harmful policies from Trump in the near future.