And, no, don't worry, we haven't individually identified and named each squirrel in our yard - they are all called "Cyril the Squirrel".
Saturday, April 30, 2016
Natural Weekends
Our neighbor Cyril was up in the oak tree yesterday, nibbling on the spring flowers that the oak produces, some of which will eventually form an acorn for squirrels to hoard in the fall - the oak provides food in both spring and autumn.
And, no, don't worry, we haven't individually identified and named each squirrel in our yard - they are all called "Cyril the Squirrel".
And, no, don't worry, we haven't individually identified and named each squirrel in our yard - they are all called "Cyril the Squirrel".
Friday, April 29, 2016
New Moon Found Circling Kuiper Belt Dwarf Planet
The Kuiper Belt is an area beyond Neptune that hosts a number of dwarf planets (a status poor Pluto was reduced to back in 2006). In 2005, a small one of these dwarf planets was discovered and named Makemake after the Easter Island god of fertility. Now, astronomers have discovered, with the help of the Hubble telescope, that Makemake has a small moon which they have named MK2. It is hard to believe that the first Kuiper Belt object (excluding Pluto) was only discovered back in 1992 and now up to 1,000 more objects have been found in that region.
Bridgeport City Council Gets Budget Adviser
It is nice to see that my hometown Bridgeport City Council is hiring an outside budget adviser, although it seems a bit surprising that this was not already in place. I would think that most city and town councils would have some trouble with the arcana of the various programs within a typical municipal budget. And, in these days of tight budgets, it seems it would be especially important for council members to not only ask the right questions but get some answers as well - let's hope this consultant is worth it. As always, I rely on Lennie Grimaldi and his Only In Bridgeport blog for most of my information on Bridgeport politics.
Getting To Universal Coverage
One of the signature proposals in Bernie Sanders' campaign is universal health care coverage, or "Medicare For All" as he likes to describe it. While the actual cost of bringing Medicare For All to fruition has been a subject of some debate during the campaign, the political hurdles are also enormous. The lobbying power of the big pharmaceuticals, insurance companies, hospitals, and doctors together create a roadblock to most healthcare reforms. The incentives, or some may say, giveaways, to insurers, hospitals, and pharmaceuticals were what allowed Obamacare to pass in the first place. And, as we can see from this latest story about even Democrats lining up against a perfectly reasonable effort to eliminate the financial incentives for doctors to prescribe the most expensive drug when a cheaper alternative is available, the lobbying power of these interest groups is immense. And, in this case, if I am reading it correctly, the big pharma and doctors are on one side and hospitals and insurers are on the other - even when the interests of these groups somewhat diverge, it is almost impossible to get reforms implemented. And let's be clear, when we say lobbying power, we mean campaign contributions and/or media campaigns.
As it seems all but certain now that Sanders' will not be the Democratic nominee, the path to universal coverage would seem to be disappearing, although the issue will continue to be brought to the fore by Sanders and other progressives, especially focusing on the broadly popular idea of allowing the government to negotiate drug prices. But the Affordable Care Act (ACA) may offer a slightly different path to universal coverage as it allows states to experiment with providing their own insurance plans. Vermont had initially planned to provide a single payer option by setting up the state-run Green Mountain Care. But Democratic Governor Shumlin killed the program before it even got off the ground over concerns over cost. In Minnesota, there is a bill to have the state offer a Basic Health Plan (BHP) that would compete with other insurance plans offered under the state's ACA marketplace MNSure. As currently constructed, this new state plan would require a waiver from the federal government, but, if allowed, would offer exceedingly good coverage for the current price of a Silver Plan which, over time, could become the single-payer option for those who lack access to employer-based insurance plans. And in Colorado there is a measure on the ballot this November that would create a public health system that guarantees universal coverage.
As expected, insurance and pharmaceutical companies are already lined up in opposition to all the above programs. And conservatives worry that the costs will be overwhelming. But, eventually, some state is going to have a single-payer option and when that happens, we will have a real-world example here in the United States that will give an indication of what those costs really are - it just may not be the way Bernie and his supporters wanted to get there.
As it seems all but certain now that Sanders' will not be the Democratic nominee, the path to universal coverage would seem to be disappearing, although the issue will continue to be brought to the fore by Sanders and other progressives, especially focusing on the broadly popular idea of allowing the government to negotiate drug prices. But the Affordable Care Act (ACA) may offer a slightly different path to universal coverage as it allows states to experiment with providing their own insurance plans. Vermont had initially planned to provide a single payer option by setting up the state-run Green Mountain Care. But Democratic Governor Shumlin killed the program before it even got off the ground over concerns over cost. In Minnesota, there is a bill to have the state offer a Basic Health Plan (BHP) that would compete with other insurance plans offered under the state's ACA marketplace MNSure. As currently constructed, this new state plan would require a waiver from the federal government, but, if allowed, would offer exceedingly good coverage for the current price of a Silver Plan which, over time, could become the single-payer option for those who lack access to employer-based insurance plans. And in Colorado there is a measure on the ballot this November that would create a public health system that guarantees universal coverage.
As expected, insurance and pharmaceutical companies are already lined up in opposition to all the above programs. And conservatives worry that the costs will be overwhelming. But, eventually, some state is going to have a single-payer option and when that happens, we will have a real-world example here in the United States that will give an indication of what those costs really are - it just may not be the way Bernie and his supporters wanted to get there.
Employment Up, Productivity Down - A Theory
A front page article in the NY Times today proposes three theories as to why productivity seems to be lagging even as employment is increasing. I have no data to support this, only anecdotal evidence (but isn't that the prerogative of a blogger), but it certainly supports the theory of what the Times calls the "low productivity worker". I'd prefer to frame it in a slightly more positive way. As firms laid off more and more people in 2008 and 2009, the remaining workers were asked to assume many more roles - sometimes doing jobs that had been handled by two or three people earlier. These remaining workers put in longer hours to keep up with their increased workload. In white collar jobs, their pay remained stagnant despite the increase in responsibility and productivity. Many of my friends who kept their jobs over the last seven years have been working harder than ever for virtually the same amount of money and have come, quite frankly, to despise the jobs they have. But, until recently, there was nowhere else to go, no other jobs out there, so they just hunkered down and survived. But now, as jobs start opening up and voluntary quits are back to their pre-recession levels, employers have to reduce the workload for the employees they have or they will leave, and so are gradually moving back to more reasonable staffing levels. You would expect some small productivity gains from this rehiring activity, but not much, as the job was already getting done adequately. But I think it is a little harsh to say that these new hires are "low productivity" - it is better to view it as some balance returning to the lives of the super high productivity workers that remained during the recession.
Anyway, just some evidence-free anecdotes in support of a theory...
Anyway, just some evidence-free anecdotes in support of a theory...
Thursday, April 28, 2016
No Water For Venezuelan Electricity
This article about the collapse of electricity production in Venezuela focuses on the corruption and economic mismanagement in that country. But it is yet another example of climate change fostering food, water, and related crises that lead to political instability. Corruption and economic mismanagement are relatively common across the world's political landscape - just look at the turn to austerity in Europe and the US. But not having enough water for a dam that has been creating electricity since the late 1960s is rather uncommon - unfortunately, it is something we will see more and more of in the coming years.
Stanely Cup Update
Last night, the Nashville Predators scored two first period goals, survived a crossbar on an open net in the second period and a post in third, and hung on to defeat the Anaheim Ducks 2-1 in game 7 of their first round series. The Predators defense and goaltending was solid, holding Anaheim's sniper Corey Perry to no goals in the series, and John Gibson's less than stellar play in the first two games immediately put Anaheim behind the eight ball. This was another game 7 defeat for the Ducks, blowing a 3-2 lead in the series, and another early round loss for their coach Bruce Boudreau whose job is probably in jeopardy as a result. This is also another loss for my first round predictions and it means that the three favorites to make it out of the West and to the Finals, the Ducks, Blackhawks, and Kings, have all been defeated in the first round. And it leaves me with one last second round prediction:
San Jose Sharks defeat Nashville Predators - Sharks have been under the radar with no pressure all season and the Preds have just endured a seven game slugfest with the Ducks. The prior playoff experience and depth that San Jose has should be able to get them over the finish line in a long, tough series - perhaps another seven games.
Just as a note, the Islanders started off round two last night by beating the Lightning 4-3, chasing a horrible Ben Bishop, as Thomas Greiss continued his superb play. Just as I predicted - NOT!
I'll check back in at the end of this round, if not sooner.
San Jose Sharks defeat Nashville Predators - Sharks have been under the radar with no pressure all season and the Preds have just endured a seven game slugfest with the Ducks. The prior playoff experience and depth that San Jose has should be able to get them over the finish line in a long, tough series - perhaps another seven games.
Just as a note, the Islanders started off round two last night by beating the Lightning 4-3, chasing a horrible Ben Bishop, as Thomas Greiss continued his superb play. Just as I predicted - NOT!
I'll check back in at the end of this round, if not sooner.
Wednesday, April 27, 2016
Astrophotography Adventure (cont'd) - Getting Better
I was pretty happy with my last attempt at astrophotography using my iPhone through the Starblast 4.5. There were still some focus issues but using the low boost on ISO in NightCapPro really helped improve the photos I got of the Moon. So it was back out for another attempt - this time I was not only going to image the Moon but also see how this new set-up would work on Jupiter. Well, I am really pleased with what I got - so happy I even tried a little post-processing with GIMP. I only used the Brightness/Contrast, Curves, and Unsharpen Mask features for processing. Here are a couple of Moon shots with ISO probably all the way down to 32 and exposure time of around 1/200. Unfortunately, it looks like there was a little dust on the iPhone lens on the Moon shots. The original image is on the left and the post-processed image on the right:
And here is another set:
And I'm also really pleased with how the pictures of Jupiter turned out. Using the Low ISO Boost and setting the exposure time of about 1/50 to 1/80 second worked out very well. Additionally, I used the NightCapPro magnification to increase the size of the image. Again, the original is on the left and the processed image on the right. If you look carefully, you can also just make out one of Jupiter's moons to the right of the planet in both these photos:
All these photos were taken using the 7.5mm eyepiece with a 2x Barlow on the Starblast 4.5 inch, giving a magnification of just under 140x. If you want to know the equipment I am working with, you can read all about it in my original astrophotography post here. Now that I've become more familiar with NightCapPro, I think the next step is an attempt at Saturn, which is not as bright an image as the Moon or Jupiter; that will probably mean more tweaking the settings on NightCapPro. I'd also like to try to capture M42, the Orion Nebula, as that will test out the High ISO Boost and 15 or 20 second exposures. We'll see how those come out in future posts...
And here is another set:
And I'm also really pleased with how the pictures of Jupiter turned out. Using the Low ISO Boost and setting the exposure time of about 1/50 to 1/80 second worked out very well. Additionally, I used the NightCapPro magnification to increase the size of the image. Again, the original is on the left and the processed image on the right. If you look carefully, you can also just make out one of Jupiter's moons to the right of the planet in both these photos:
All these photos were taken using the 7.5mm eyepiece with a 2x Barlow on the Starblast 4.5 inch, giving a magnification of just under 140x. If you want to know the equipment I am working with, you can read all about it in my original astrophotography post here. Now that I've become more familiar with NightCapPro, I think the next step is an attempt at Saturn, which is not as bright an image as the Moon or Jupiter; that will probably mean more tweaking the settings on NightCapPro. I'd also like to try to capture M42, the Orion Nebula, as that will test out the High ISO Boost and 15 or 20 second exposures. We'll see how those come out in future posts...
Carly and Cruz - Perfect Together
I'm not quite sure CruzCarly! is going to be what it takes to stop the Trump train. In fact, I'm pretty sure it won't. Though I am sure Carly will make the most of her next few weeks in the spotlight. But has there ever been a potential Presidential/Vice Presidential combo that is more disliked by the people who know and work with them than these two?
Stanley Cup - Second Round Predictions
The second round of the NHL playoffs begin tonight as well as the deciding game 7 of the final first round matchup between the Ducks and the Predators. You can see the (mediocre to poor) results of my first round predictions here. After reviewing that, you may choose to ignore these second round predictions:
Pittsburgh Penguins defeat Washington Capitals - The Penguins come out of the prior series with boatloads of confidence while the Capitals had trouble scoring toward the end of their series with the Flyers. Both teams have superstar forwards - Crosby and Malkin for the Pens, Ovechkin and Kuznetsov for the Caps - and a superstar defenseman - Kris Letang for the Pens, John Carlson for the Caps. The Caps probably have the edge in goal as Braden Holtby has been superb all season long and the Pens may be relying on backup Matt Murray. But the aforementioned Kuznetsov was not a factor in the prior series. This has all the makings of a classic seven game series.
Tampa Bay Lightning defeat New York Islanders - Islanders rely heavily on John Tavares while the Lightning have scorers up and down the lineup. Ben Bishop looks like he is at the top of his game so Thomas Greiss will have to maintain his superb play to keep the Islanders in this series. Just don't think the Islanders have enough to get this done.
St. Louis Blues defeat Dallas Stars - Stars defense and goaltending are always suspect and Brian Elliott looks solid in net for the Blues. Elliott and the St. Louis' defense should be able to hold Dallas scoring in check just enough to get through this series. Never count out a big letdown by the Blues having finally gotten by Chicago - but I just don't see it happening.
San Jose Sharks will face the winner of tonight's Ducks-Predators game. I'll let you know what I think after I know the matchup. Whoever they face, the Sharks will have had plenty of rest.
Enjoy the games!!
Pittsburgh Penguins defeat Washington Capitals - The Penguins come out of the prior series with boatloads of confidence while the Capitals had trouble scoring toward the end of their series with the Flyers. Both teams have superstar forwards - Crosby and Malkin for the Pens, Ovechkin and Kuznetsov for the Caps - and a superstar defenseman - Kris Letang for the Pens, John Carlson for the Caps. The Caps probably have the edge in goal as Braden Holtby has been superb all season long and the Pens may be relying on backup Matt Murray. But the aforementioned Kuznetsov was not a factor in the prior series. This has all the makings of a classic seven game series.
Tampa Bay Lightning defeat New York Islanders - Islanders rely heavily on John Tavares while the Lightning have scorers up and down the lineup. Ben Bishop looks like he is at the top of his game so Thomas Greiss will have to maintain his superb play to keep the Islanders in this series. Just don't think the Islanders have enough to get this done.
St. Louis Blues defeat Dallas Stars - Stars defense and goaltending are always suspect and Brian Elliott looks solid in net for the Blues. Elliott and the St. Louis' defense should be able to hold Dallas scoring in check just enough to get through this series. Never count out a big letdown by the Blues having finally gotten by Chicago - but I just don't see it happening.
San Jose Sharks will face the winner of tonight's Ducks-Predators game. I'll let you know what I think after I know the matchup. Whoever they face, the Sharks will have had plenty of rest.
Enjoy the games!!
Trump and Clinton Near Nomination
The results are in from the "Northeast" primary and, as expected, Trump and Clinton both had resounding wins across the region. Trump swept all the five states (CT,DE,RI,MD,PA) and, at this point, seems to have won virtually all the delegates, with the Kasich-Cruz combo only managing to win 6 delegates outright. This puts him ever closer to being able to get over the 1,237 delegate threshold and secure the nomination outright.
Hillary Clinton won four out of the five states, losing only in Rhode Island. Bizarrely, due to the crazy nature of delegate apportionment (that's a whole post in itself), she still managed to win more delegates than Sanders in that state. These results pretty much lock up the nomination for Clinton but the strong showing by Sanders across the board in these states show he and his supporters will be a force to be reckoned with in the Democratic Party going forward.
Here in Connecticut, the results were in line with what I expected. It was a rout for Trump but Kasich did about 4% better than the polls indicated. And Hillary's strength in the big cities and among lower Fairfield County Democrats were enough to provide about a 4% win.
Hillary Clinton won four out of the five states, losing only in Rhode Island. Bizarrely, due to the crazy nature of delegate apportionment (that's a whole post in itself), she still managed to win more delegates than Sanders in that state. These results pretty much lock up the nomination for Clinton but the strong showing by Sanders across the board in these states show he and his supporters will be a force to be reckoned with in the Democratic Party going forward.
Here in Connecticut, the results were in line with what I expected. It was a rout for Trump but Kasich did about 4% better than the polls indicated. And Hillary's strength in the big cities and among lower Fairfield County Democrats were enough to provide about a 4% win.
Tuesday, April 26, 2016
Stanley Cup - First Round Recap
The first round of the NHL playoffs are nearly in the book with only one matchup remaining to be decided in a game 7 on Wednesday night between the Anaheim Ducks and the Nashville Predators. But, as the second round also begins on Wednesday for some teams, it's time to recap the first round and compare the results to my predictions:
Washington Capitals defeat Philadelphia Flyers 4-2 as predicted. The Caps were dominant in the early games in the series but the Flyers put Michael Neuvirth in goal for Game 4 and he nearly turned the series around. Washington should be concerned going forward by their lack of scoring late in this series.
Tampa Bay Lightning defeat Detroit Red Wings 4-1 as predicted. Tampa Bay was just too fast and too good up and down the lineup. Special mention needs to be made of Jonathan Drouin who requested to be traded from Tampa, was sent down to the minors, and then returned to the Lightning just before the playoffs and was a dominant force in this series. Also, it seems, a sad goodbye to Pavel Datsyuk of the Red Wings who looks like he will be heading home to Russia - one of the all-time greats.
Florida Panthers lose to New York Islanders 4-2 - prediction incorrect. The Islanders playoff experience from last year paid off for them this year as they won 3 games in overtime and the other three games were essentially one goal games as the Panthers scored an empty net goal in Game 2 for a 3-1 win. Reilly Smith was excellent for Florida, in the playoffs for the first time in four years and only the second time since 2000(!), but the difference in this exceptionally tight series was the outstanding play of Thomas Greiss in goal for the Islanders.
New York Rangers lose to Pittsburgh Penguins 4-2 - prediction incorrect. I thought Lundqvist in goal and the forward depth of the Rangers would be the difference - boy was I wrong! The goalie combo of Jeff Zakoff and Matt Murray for the Penguins were the equal or better of Lunqvist. The Ranger forwards disappeared, despite Rich Nash, the perennial disappointment, showing up with 5 points in the series. Eric Staal, who the Rangers brought in from Carolina for a Stanley Cup run, had no points and was deficient defensively. But deficient defensively applied to the whole Ranger team as they allowed 11 goals in the last two games. It may be time to break up this Ranger team and rebuild (they have traded away all their draft picks over the last few years chasing the Cup) and let Lundqvist go to a team that really has a chance to win it all. Pittsburgh will be going into the next series firing on all cylinders with utmost confidence.
Dallas Stars defeat Minnesota Wild 4-2 as predicted. Minnesota just didn't have enough firepower early in this series and Dallas is a scoring machine. Unfortunately, with the Dallas defense, there is no such thing as a safe lead as they nearly blew a four goal lead in the third period of the final game before just hanging on to win.
Chicago Blackhawks lose to the St. Louis Blues 4-3 - prediction incorrect. The Blues erased a decade of frustration by finally winning a first round series and a game 7 decider. The series was as bruising and tight as we thought it would be, with six out of the seven games being decided by one goal, two of them in overtime. As if to just toy with the emotions of Blues' fans in game 7, Troy Brouwer needed three tries to put the go-ahead goal into a virtually empty net mid-way in the third period and then the Blues survived a double post shot from the Hawk's Brent Seabrook, beating Brian Elliot in the final minutes. But Elliott in goal for the Blues was probably the difference in this incredibly exciting and hard-fought series.
Los Angeles Kings lose to the San Jose Sharks 4-1 - prediction incorrect. Just like the Blues, the Sharks finally beat the Kings and put years of frustration behind them. Martin Jones was Jonathan Quick's equal in the net for the Sharks and the Kings' undermanned defense had no way to stop Joe Pavelski who had five goals in the series. San Jose finally played to their potential in the post-season and thoroughly dominated L.A. in all categories.
As mentioned earlier, my prediction of the Anaheim Ducks defeating the Nashville Predators remains to be seen as we await game 7 on Wednesday night.
There was some great hockey and a number of really good series here in the first round. And it's only going to get better in round two. I'll have my predictions for that round later on.
Washington Capitals defeat Philadelphia Flyers 4-2 as predicted. The Caps were dominant in the early games in the series but the Flyers put Michael Neuvirth in goal for Game 4 and he nearly turned the series around. Washington should be concerned going forward by their lack of scoring late in this series.
Tampa Bay Lightning defeat Detroit Red Wings 4-1 as predicted. Tampa Bay was just too fast and too good up and down the lineup. Special mention needs to be made of Jonathan Drouin who requested to be traded from Tampa, was sent down to the minors, and then returned to the Lightning just before the playoffs and was a dominant force in this series. Also, it seems, a sad goodbye to Pavel Datsyuk of the Red Wings who looks like he will be heading home to Russia - one of the all-time greats.
Florida Panthers lose to New York Islanders 4-2 - prediction incorrect. The Islanders playoff experience from last year paid off for them this year as they won 3 games in overtime and the other three games were essentially one goal games as the Panthers scored an empty net goal in Game 2 for a 3-1 win. Reilly Smith was excellent for Florida, in the playoffs for the first time in four years and only the second time since 2000(!), but the difference in this exceptionally tight series was the outstanding play of Thomas Greiss in goal for the Islanders.
New York Rangers lose to Pittsburgh Penguins 4-2 - prediction incorrect. I thought Lundqvist in goal and the forward depth of the Rangers would be the difference - boy was I wrong! The goalie combo of Jeff Zakoff and Matt Murray for the Penguins were the equal or better of Lunqvist. The Ranger forwards disappeared, despite Rich Nash, the perennial disappointment, showing up with 5 points in the series. Eric Staal, who the Rangers brought in from Carolina for a Stanley Cup run, had no points and was deficient defensively. But deficient defensively applied to the whole Ranger team as they allowed 11 goals in the last two games. It may be time to break up this Ranger team and rebuild (they have traded away all their draft picks over the last few years chasing the Cup) and let Lundqvist go to a team that really has a chance to win it all. Pittsburgh will be going into the next series firing on all cylinders with utmost confidence.
Dallas Stars defeat Minnesota Wild 4-2 as predicted. Minnesota just didn't have enough firepower early in this series and Dallas is a scoring machine. Unfortunately, with the Dallas defense, there is no such thing as a safe lead as they nearly blew a four goal lead in the third period of the final game before just hanging on to win.
Chicago Blackhawks lose to the St. Louis Blues 4-3 - prediction incorrect. The Blues erased a decade of frustration by finally winning a first round series and a game 7 decider. The series was as bruising and tight as we thought it would be, with six out of the seven games being decided by one goal, two of them in overtime. As if to just toy with the emotions of Blues' fans in game 7, Troy Brouwer needed three tries to put the go-ahead goal into a virtually empty net mid-way in the third period and then the Blues survived a double post shot from the Hawk's Brent Seabrook, beating Brian Elliot in the final minutes. But Elliott in goal for the Blues was probably the difference in this incredibly exciting and hard-fought series.
Los Angeles Kings lose to the San Jose Sharks 4-1 - prediction incorrect. Just like the Blues, the Sharks finally beat the Kings and put years of frustration behind them. Martin Jones was Jonathan Quick's equal in the net for the Sharks and the Kings' undermanned defense had no way to stop Joe Pavelski who had five goals in the series. San Jose finally played to their potential in the post-season and thoroughly dominated L.A. in all categories.
As mentioned earlier, my prediction of the Anaheim Ducks defeating the Nashville Predators remains to be seen as we await game 7 on Wednesday night.
There was some great hockey and a number of really good series here in the first round. And it's only going to get better in round two. I'll have my predictions for that round later on.
Affinity Candidates - Not!
Usually, neighboring states have some affinity for a Presidential candidate from a state next door - Bernie Sanders won New Hampshire and came very close in Massachusetts. But not so with this Kasich-Cruz dalliance which may already be falling apart. Kasich, the Governor of Ohio, is supposedly abandoning his neighboring state of Indiana because Cruz has a better chance to win. And Cruz, Senator from Texas, is abandoning his neighboring state of New Mexico because Kasich has a better shot there. On the other hand, maybe the voters in those states already know plenty about their neighbor next door...
China Delays About 200 Coal-Fired Stations
As an addendum to my post about renewables getting cheaper, I see that China has announced it is postponing or potentially abandoning plans for about 200 coal-fired power plants. Now, obviously this has probably more to do with the sagging Chinese economy than any environmental concerns. But it is positive nonetheless, because the longer those plants are delayed, the cheaper wind and solar alternatives will become. And, when (and if) the Chinese economy has resurgence and power demands increase, those renewables may actually be the cheaper alternative.
Understanding Trump's Support
In a previous post on Understanding Trump , I promised to explore the reasons for Trump's resonance with the current electorate and how he has tapped into the justifiable anger of a significant number of voters. The foundation of this anger can be summed in one simple graph tracking the inflation-adjusted hourly wages since 1964:
In 40 years, the inflation adjusted hourly wage has risen a measly 8% and is actually lower than it was 30 years ago. The long held premise, at least when I was a youngster, was that wages increased as productivity increased. But, as we can see, the link between those two broke sometime in the mid-to-late 1970s and the gap between those two indices has been growing ever since:
Now the reasons for this disconnect are multiple, but it is not unreasonable to believe that the major elements would be automation and globalization, specifically in the form of free trade. Whatever the reasons, however, the benefits of increased productivity went somewhere and that somewhere was to the economic elites in this country:
As we can see, right about the time the gap between productivity increases and wages started to show up in the mid-to-late 1970s, the income gap between the top 20% of earners and the rest of us began to grow as well and has exploded when just looking at the top 5%. And, just as in the prior productivity chart, the gap continues to expand today, even after the Great Recession.
The theory of free trade is that it is a win-win for both parties - for the US, cheaper imports and expanded export markets more than offset the reduction of exports of goods that can now be made more cheaply overseas. And that is probably true. But the fact still remains that, within the US, there will be winners and losers and the losers have primarily been lower wage workers, especially in the manufacturing sector. The number of manufacturing jobs in the US has decreased by over 35% since the late 1970s and there is no sign that the trend will not continue. The part of free-trade theory that conveniently gets ignored is that a portion of the increased benefits that accrue to the "winners" will need to be used, or redistributed, in other words, to help the "losers" adjust to the dislocation that free trade has caused.
Both parties were complicit in ignoring the redistributional element of free trade theory. For years, Democratic Party, the traditional home of these working class workers, supported these free trade deals that protect the various interests of big business while at the same time offering virtually no protections to the workers who were harmed. And, as wage stagnation and offshoring began to increase the pressure on these workers, they found the Democratic activists more focused on civil rights, equal rights, and the urban poor and the Democratic establishment focused on new found fondness for big business and its campaign contributions. Deregulation of the trucking and airline industries with no protections for the workers in those industries occurred under Jimmy Carter. The resulting competition forced many business to start offshoring or move their operations to Southern right-to-work states and started the decline of the unionized labor force. Democrats put up virtually no resistance as unions were decimated and manufacturing industries were gutted. And the rout of American manufacturing went into overdrive starting in 2001 with China's entry into the World Trade Organization. In addition, the Great Migration, the mass movement of poor, primarily African American, Southerners into the working class industrial centers had changed their communities radically - their initial immigration crisis, albeit internal. Nowadays, the immigrants are primarily Hispanic but the issues remain the same. With their wages stagnant, their jobs moving overseas, and their communities seemingly in decline, working class whites felt abandoned by the Democratic Party.
Of course, the word "redistribution" is an anathema to the Republican Party and, as the party of big business, it also overwhelmingly supported these trade deals. However, the Republicans managed to avoid the slow building anger of lower income wage stagnation by cleverly focusing that anger on "the undeserving poor". From Reagan's "welfare queens" to Mitt Romney's 47% comment, they were able to focus working voters on the idea that other people were getting a better deal than they were. And that message went hand in hand with the idea that government was the problem, because, clearly, the government was doing nothing to address the plight of these workers. Meanwhile, of course, the massive tax breaks to the 1% never managed to create the jobs that were promised - has there ever been a more appropriately named theory than the Laffer Curve, but that's for another day - and the profits from globalization also went to the very same 1%.
But, as is becoming increasingly apparent, the real game changer that allowed a candidate like Trump to emerge was the response to the economic crisis that began in 2008 and the government response to that crisis. TARP, the program that essentially saved the financial industry that had caused the disaster, was passed and signed into law by President Bush with the support of both Republican and Democratic elites. The very people that had caused the greatest collapse since the Great Depression were essentially being bailed out by the government, the very same government that had stood by and done nothing as the livelihood of working class workers was and is threatened. And, as we saw in the above graph on household income, very quickly the incomes of those very elites had returned to normal and continued to rise.
Now, voter anger was additionally directed at what Thomas Edsall calls "the undeserving rich", those beneficiaries of the bailout - (you should really read his whole article in entirety). And Trump has managed to capture both elements of this anger with the two pillars of his campaign - his attacks on free trade target the undeserving rich and the attacks on immigrants target the undeserving poor. That's why his lack of orthodoxy on conservative social values or his position on entitlements or his lack of policy specifics has not hurt him - his voters are far less concerned with those details than they are with the dual objects of their anger and Trump has become the perfect expression of their frustration.
Considering the trends for the last 35 years, the financial collapse of 2008, and the government's response to that collapse, it is not surprising to see significant support for Donald Trump. What is more surprising is that it has taken over 7 years since that collapse for a demagogue like Trump to emerge and tap into the anger that those events created in the electorate.
In 40 years, the inflation adjusted hourly wage has risen a measly 8% and is actually lower than it was 30 years ago. The long held premise, at least when I was a youngster, was that wages increased as productivity increased. But, as we can see, the link between those two broke sometime in the mid-to-late 1970s and the gap between those two indices has been growing ever since:
Now the reasons for this disconnect are multiple, but it is not unreasonable to believe that the major elements would be automation and globalization, specifically in the form of free trade. Whatever the reasons, however, the benefits of increased productivity went somewhere and that somewhere was to the economic elites in this country:
As we can see, right about the time the gap between productivity increases and wages started to show up in the mid-to-late 1970s, the income gap between the top 20% of earners and the rest of us began to grow as well and has exploded when just looking at the top 5%. And, just as in the prior productivity chart, the gap continues to expand today, even after the Great Recession.
The theory of free trade is that it is a win-win for both parties - for the US, cheaper imports and expanded export markets more than offset the reduction of exports of goods that can now be made more cheaply overseas. And that is probably true. But the fact still remains that, within the US, there will be winners and losers and the losers have primarily been lower wage workers, especially in the manufacturing sector. The number of manufacturing jobs in the US has decreased by over 35% since the late 1970s and there is no sign that the trend will not continue. The part of free-trade theory that conveniently gets ignored is that a portion of the increased benefits that accrue to the "winners" will need to be used, or redistributed, in other words, to help the "losers" adjust to the dislocation that free trade has caused.
Both parties were complicit in ignoring the redistributional element of free trade theory. For years, Democratic Party, the traditional home of these working class workers, supported these free trade deals that protect the various interests of big business while at the same time offering virtually no protections to the workers who were harmed. And, as wage stagnation and offshoring began to increase the pressure on these workers, they found the Democratic activists more focused on civil rights, equal rights, and the urban poor and the Democratic establishment focused on new found fondness for big business and its campaign contributions. Deregulation of the trucking and airline industries with no protections for the workers in those industries occurred under Jimmy Carter. The resulting competition forced many business to start offshoring or move their operations to Southern right-to-work states and started the decline of the unionized labor force. Democrats put up virtually no resistance as unions were decimated and manufacturing industries were gutted. And the rout of American manufacturing went into overdrive starting in 2001 with China's entry into the World Trade Organization. In addition, the Great Migration, the mass movement of poor, primarily African American, Southerners into the working class industrial centers had changed their communities radically - their initial immigration crisis, albeit internal. Nowadays, the immigrants are primarily Hispanic but the issues remain the same. With their wages stagnant, their jobs moving overseas, and their communities seemingly in decline, working class whites felt abandoned by the Democratic Party.
Of course, the word "redistribution" is an anathema to the Republican Party and, as the party of big business, it also overwhelmingly supported these trade deals. However, the Republicans managed to avoid the slow building anger of lower income wage stagnation by cleverly focusing that anger on "the undeserving poor". From Reagan's "welfare queens" to Mitt Romney's 47% comment, they were able to focus working voters on the idea that other people were getting a better deal than they were. And that message went hand in hand with the idea that government was the problem, because, clearly, the government was doing nothing to address the plight of these workers. Meanwhile, of course, the massive tax breaks to the 1% never managed to create the jobs that were promised - has there ever been a more appropriately named theory than the Laffer Curve, but that's for another day - and the profits from globalization also went to the very same 1%.
But, as is becoming increasingly apparent, the real game changer that allowed a candidate like Trump to emerge was the response to the economic crisis that began in 2008 and the government response to that crisis. TARP, the program that essentially saved the financial industry that had caused the disaster, was passed and signed into law by President Bush with the support of both Republican and Democratic elites. The very people that had caused the greatest collapse since the Great Depression were essentially being bailed out by the government, the very same government that had stood by and done nothing as the livelihood of working class workers was and is threatened. And, as we saw in the above graph on household income, very quickly the incomes of those very elites had returned to normal and continued to rise.
Now, voter anger was additionally directed at what Thomas Edsall calls "the undeserving rich", those beneficiaries of the bailout - (you should really read his whole article in entirety). And Trump has managed to capture both elements of this anger with the two pillars of his campaign - his attacks on free trade target the undeserving rich and the attacks on immigrants target the undeserving poor. That's why his lack of orthodoxy on conservative social values or his position on entitlements or his lack of policy specifics has not hurt him - his voters are far less concerned with those details than they are with the dual objects of their anger and Trump has become the perfect expression of their frustration.
Considering the trends for the last 35 years, the financial collapse of 2008, and the government's response to that collapse, it is not surprising to see significant support for Donald Trump. What is more surprising is that it has taken over 7 years since that collapse for a demagogue like Trump to emerge and tap into the anger that those events created in the electorate.
Ospreys On the Prowl
It was such beautiful spring weather over the weekend, I was able to have the windows open and heard the piercing high-pitched whistles of the osprey pretty nearby. Grabbed the camera and quickly went outside and got some nice photos of these gorgeous animals in flight, just circling overhead - so effortless on the wind.
Connecticut Polls Are Open
Polls are already open and will stay open here in Connecticut until 8pm tonight. To find out where to vote, you can go to this site:
http://www.ct.gov/sots/cwp/view.asp
So get out and vote!
http://www.ct.gov/sots/cwp/view.asp
So get out and vote!
Monday, April 25, 2016
New Meaning for "Until the Cows Come Home"
I guess the phrase is taken more literally in Australia, at least by this cow.
Direction to the Universe??
For what it's worth, universetoday.com reports that the supermassive black holes that are in the center of most large galaxies, including our own, are all spinning in the same direction in a certain distant region of the universe. The team that made these discoveries ventures that this indicates "primordial mass fluctuations in the early universe". Predictably, these fluctuations are not accounted for in current theories of the origin of the universe. As always in the field of cosmology, time for a rethink...
Elton Spitzer - the Man Behind WLIR
Sad to see the passing of Elton Spitzer, the man who operated WLIR-FM in its heyday in the 1970s and 80s. For those of us lucky enough to live in the New York City area in those heady days, the importance of WLIR can not be overstated. There was no internet; MTV did not launch until 1981 and that was on cable - and no one had cable; the only place to find out about new music was on the radio. And for the most part, New York City radio was a desert. Because the market was so huge, no large station could take any risks. In the late 1970s, the station focused on punk and new wave music that the mainstream completely ignored and consistently highlighted local bands. And in the early eighties, WLIR became the most influential station in the New York City area and, usually, one of the first stops for new bands coming to the US from Europe. Many artists got their first play on WLIR months before they ever broke out more generally. With Dennis McNamara as program director, classic DJs like Larry the Duck, DJ Andre, Donna Donna, and Malibu Sue, lots of local events, and the general fun that the station exuded, WLIR was the go-to spot on your radio dial. It all ended when the station lost its license in 1987. For those of you who still long for those days gone by, the station still lives on as the internet station wlir.fm.
Stumping in CT
Three Presidential candidates were in our area for rallies over the weekend in anticipation of the Connecticut primary on Tuesday. On Saturday, Donald Trump held a rally at the Klein Auditorium in Bridgeport and reassured his supporters that he will continue to be the Trump they know and love. On Sunday, Hillary was in town at the University of Bridgeport, holding a rally where she reiterated her message on jobs, equal pay and the minimum wage, and taking on the gun lobby, as she had done in her prior campaign events here in Connecticut. Bernie Sanders was in New Haven on Sunday evening holding a rally on the Green where a reported 14,000 people showed up to hear his message on economic inequality and the rigged economy - just another indication of his unflagging support among Democratic voters even in the face of the daunting mathematical challenge of actually winning the nomination.
Current polling shows Trump with an overwhelming lead here in the Nutmeg state. But Connecticut has a closed primary which will keep disaffected Democrats and Independents from voting in the Republican primary. Because of that, and the fact that Kasich is probably the choice of the country-club Republican crowd, I would expect Trump to underperform and Kasich to overperform what the polls currently show. But it will still be a big win for Trump.
On the Democratic side, there is a real possibility of an upset here for Sanders. Again, however, the closed primary will hurt him in that Independents can not vote, while Clinton will probably rack up big wins in the major cities, especially Bridgeport, Hartford, and Waterbury. The fact that Hillary has made three stops here and the Big Dog (Bill Clinton) will be in Connecticut today indicate that the Clinton campaign thinks this is closer than the polls indicate.
An upset here in Connecticut, along with a projected win in Rhode Island, would be surely be enough to keep the Sanders campaign going strong. My belief is that Bernie should stay in it all the way to the end as the issues he is raising are important to the future of the Democratic party and the progressive movement as a whole. And, as the Times indicates today, he is already beginning to focus on shaping the agenda of the Democratic Party going forward.
And, personally, it's nice to be able to have a presidential primary vote that actually might have some resonance - usually, the battle has been won by the time Connecticut gets to vote! So make sure you take advantage of this opportunity and get to the polls tomorrow.
Current polling shows Trump with an overwhelming lead here in the Nutmeg state. But Connecticut has a closed primary which will keep disaffected Democrats and Independents from voting in the Republican primary. Because of that, and the fact that Kasich is probably the choice of the country-club Republican crowd, I would expect Trump to underperform and Kasich to overperform what the polls currently show. But it will still be a big win for Trump.
On the Democratic side, there is a real possibility of an upset here for Sanders. Again, however, the closed primary will hurt him in that Independents can not vote, while Clinton will probably rack up big wins in the major cities, especially Bridgeport, Hartford, and Waterbury. The fact that Hillary has made three stops here and the Big Dog (Bill Clinton) will be in Connecticut today indicate that the Clinton campaign thinks this is closer than the polls indicate.
An upset here in Connecticut, along with a projected win in Rhode Island, would be surely be enough to keep the Sanders campaign going strong. My belief is that Bernie should stay in it all the way to the end as the issues he is raising are important to the future of the Democratic party and the progressive movement as a whole. And, as the Times indicates today, he is already beginning to focus on shaping the agenda of the Democratic Party going forward.
And, personally, it's nice to be able to have a presidential primary vote that actually might have some resonance - usually, the battle has been won by the time Connecticut gets to vote! So make sure you take advantage of this opportunity and get to the polls tomorrow.
Reality Check - Are We Really Drowning in Debt?
In the prior Reality Check, I promised to discuss the potentially worrying trend lines in our national debt, the differences between the government and the family budget, and the reasons why balancing the budget and eliminating the debt is a political fantasy. This week we will deal first of these items - the seemingly alarming increase in national debt since 2000.
Let's start with the graph that is used to scare us all - the recent growth of our national debt:
As you can see, the tripling of federal debt from $5.8 trillion in 2000 nearly $19 trillion in 2015 sure makes it look like our debt is spiraling out of control. But, as we noted in our prior Reality Check, the important number is not so much the actual amount of debt but its relationship to GDP, with economists usually getting concerned with ratios over 60 or 70 percent. Now, GDP has actually increased by $7 trillion dollars since 2000:
So let's look at that critical debt-to-GDP percentage:
Our current debt to GDP ratio of around 100% is definitely above the recommended level and a source for concern, but not nearly as bad as the 120% at the end of World War II. Obviously, as with any budget, the two basic components are spending and revenue. So let's look at which of these elements as a percentage of GDP is driving the increase in debt since 2000:
As the graph shows, increased spending and reduced revenue are equally responsible for this explosion of debt. In fact, for the period of 2000-2007, it was actually reduced revenue that accounted for the growth in debt. And since 2007, reduced revenue and increased spending are both equally responsible, which is what you would expect during the greatest financial crisis since the Great Depression as automatic stabilizers such as unemployment insurance increase spending while tax revenue decreases as the economy shrinks. And spending as a percentage of GDP has already fallen by nearly 5% from its peak in 2009. In fact, if we could have kept the same level of revenue we had in 2000 until today, last year's annual deficit would have been under 1% of GDP, well under the 2 or 3 percent that is recommended. As a percentage of GDP, spending is going down and revenue is going up - we are headed in the right direction.
In next week's edition, we will look at how we might begin to reduce the amount of debt outstanding, especially as a percentage of GDP. Obviously, we were able to do that after World War II and, although it seems to have fallen down the memory hole, we also did it in the late 1990s. So we can do it again.
That's just reality...
Let's start with the graph that is used to scare us all - the recent growth of our national debt:
As you can see, the tripling of federal debt from $5.8 trillion in 2000 nearly $19 trillion in 2015 sure makes it look like our debt is spiraling out of control. But, as we noted in our prior Reality Check, the important number is not so much the actual amount of debt but its relationship to GDP, with economists usually getting concerned with ratios over 60 or 70 percent. Now, GDP has actually increased by $7 trillion dollars since 2000:
So let's look at that critical debt-to-GDP percentage:
Our current debt to GDP ratio of around 100% is definitely above the recommended level and a source for concern, but not nearly as bad as the 120% at the end of World War II. Obviously, as with any budget, the two basic components are spending and revenue. So let's look at which of these elements as a percentage of GDP is driving the increase in debt since 2000:
As the graph shows, increased spending and reduced revenue are equally responsible for this explosion of debt. In fact, for the period of 2000-2007, it was actually reduced revenue that accounted for the growth in debt. And since 2007, reduced revenue and increased spending are both equally responsible, which is what you would expect during the greatest financial crisis since the Great Depression as automatic stabilizers such as unemployment insurance increase spending while tax revenue decreases as the economy shrinks. And spending as a percentage of GDP has already fallen by nearly 5% from its peak in 2009. In fact, if we could have kept the same level of revenue we had in 2000 until today, last year's annual deficit would have been under 1% of GDP, well under the 2 or 3 percent that is recommended. As a percentage of GDP, spending is going down and revenue is going up - we are headed in the right direction.
In next week's edition, we will look at how we might begin to reduce the amount of debt outstanding, especially as a percentage of GDP. Obviously, we were able to do that after World War II and, although it seems to have fallen down the memory hole, we also did it in the late 1990s. So we can do it again.
That's just reality...
Saturday, April 23, 2016
Friday, April 22, 2016
Another Thing I Didn't Know About Art
A front page story in the NYT today discusses the polar opposite financial situation that the Metropolitan Museum of Art (the Met) and the Museum of Modern Art (MOMA) find themselves in. While MOMA just received a $100 million donation from David Geffen, the Met is struggling with a $10 million deficit and will have to cut programs and staff in order to get their house in order. It certainly is an indication of how popular modern and contemporary art, an area that the Met has studiously avoided, has become. However, the Met has many thousands of objects, some of which never see the light of day and you would think that they might consider selling off one or two of those items in the basement in order to shore up their finances. But, apparently, this is strictly verboten. The Association of Art Museum Directors (AAMD) requests its members not to associate themselves with any museum that actually sells some of its art work, rather than curating it forever. Now they have some possibly valid reasons for this, primarily because it may concern donors that their gifts could be sold off on a whim. But you would think there might be some exception for items that never actually get displayed or when the museum is in desperate financial situation.
Now I know my ignorance of art is pretty broad, but I was truly surprised to find this out. Just another thing I never knew...
Now I know my ignorance of art is pretty broad, but I was truly surprised to find this out. Just another thing I never knew...
The 80s Returns to Our Area
Some other musical acts recognizable from my long ago youth are coming to the Fairfield/Bridgeport area in the next few days. And no, I don't mean Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton! On Saturday, Bruce Hornsby will be at the Edgerton Center at Sacred Heart University. And next Wednesday, Spyro Gyra will be at FTC Stage One. There are a limited number of seats still available for both shows.
Astrophotography Adventure (cont'd) - next attempt
After a rather disappointing first attempt at imaging the Moon and Jupiter with my Starblast 4.5 inch and an iPhone, it's time to give it another try. The pictures from the first try were definitely overexposed and also seemingly out of focus, although it was tough to tell because of the overexposure. This time I used the Low Boost on the ISO on NightCap Pro and I upped the magnification to around 140X (7.5mm eyepiece with 2X Barlow). I decided to just try photos of the moon with this configuration and my hope was that the higher magnification would help make it easier to achieve focus as the lunar craters would be an easy focus point. And I have to say I am pretty pleased with the results:
Still a bit out of focus, but so much better than the first overexposed images. The crater Tycho is in the lower middle of the photo and you can kind of make out the rays system that extends from it. Other than being cropped, there was no post-processing for this image. I'm sure some work in GIMP could improve it quite a bit.
Still a bit out of focus, but so much better than the first overexposed images. The crater Tycho is in the lower middle of the photo and you can kind of make out the rays system that extends from it. Other than being cropped, there was no post-processing for this image. I'm sure some work in GIMP could improve it quite a bit.
This one is even better, showing Copernicus with its rays in the lower middle left and the Jura Mountains in a semicircle in the upper left edge.
I'm pretty pleased with these, considering this is just the second attempt with the iPhone. The Low Boost increased the low range of ISO and easily eliminated the overexposure problem. Then it was just adjusting the exposure time to see what kind of picture you got. There is still an issue with the focus and I'm not quite sure why that is. Both of these images are simply photos - I haven't even begun to play with video and Registax. And neither have them have been post-processed in any way. I'm pretty sure that post-processing could improve both these pictures greatly.
Obviously, excluding the Sun, the Moon is probably the easiest photographic target. The next easiest is probably Jupiter. So next time I will try again with Jupiter using what I've learned here. That's just the way astrophotography goes...
New Proposals for Restricting Wall Street Pay
New rules that put restrictions on how some Wall Street firms pay out bonuses were put out for comment by one of the six government agencies responsible for adopting those reforms. The rule changes were mandated by Dodd-Frank which became law in 2010 and the initial proposal which came out in 2011 was considered so weak it had to be shelved. Finally, nearly 5 years later, we have a new set of proposals and they certainly don't look like they will change they way Wall Street compensates their top people in any substantive way. As the New York Times notes, "(T)he proposals leave many financial firms, including large asset managers and hedge funds, shielded from the new restrictions because of the way the regulators have defined which institutions are subject to them...For those institutions subject to the rules, the new restrictions are broadly in line with changes that many banks have already been making since the financial crisis". I would still expect the bankers to complain that these proposals are too restrictive and interfere with the conduct of their business. But the fact of the matter is that this is probably a win for Wall Street, again.
Thursday, April 21, 2016
Marathon Man - Ben Beach
I've discussed what a great time of year this is for sports fans. And one of the premier events is the Boston Marathon which celebrated its 120th running on this past Monday. Well, Ben Beach, a great friend of this blog, just finished his 49th consecutive Boston Marathon in 5 hours and 31 minutes, far below the 6 hour cutoff time that the Marathon recently imposed for those runners who have run 25 or more consecutive years. So Ben has qualified for 2017 and his 50th in a row - quite an achievement, especially considering the fact that dystonia severely restricts the miles he can put in for training. Here is a nice article on Ben that ran before the 2015 marathon discussing his record-breaking exploits. A veritable youngster in his mid-60s, Ben is closing in on the legendary Johnny Kelley's feat of finishing 58 Boston Marathons. What's even more incredible is that this is not the only streak of this length that Ben has going - he has a similar run of attendance at Harvard-Yale football games. What dedication!
Reducing CO2 Emissions Gets Cheaper and Easier
Despite the collapse of oil and coal prices, investments in wind and solar technology continue to soar and prices for the energy they produce continues to fall. As the above article indicates, "recent solar and wind auctions in Mexico and Morocco ended with winning bids from companies that promised to produce electricity at the cheapest rate, from any source, anywhere in the world". Yes, even cheaper than oil, coal, or gas power plants with the prices of those source materials at recent historic lows. And the key point about wind and solar energy is there is only one direction for prices to go and that is down. Since wind and solar are basically technologies with no source fuel costs that create the variability in prices that we see with traditional energy production, increased efficiency and economies of scale will continue to push prices lower. As of 2016, renewable energy sources now account for nearly 18 percent of total US energy production.
Another innovation that also helps reduce carbon emissions is the exponential improvement in battery storage systems. Battery backup is not just for your phone or computer anymore. Big energy consumers are finding it cheaper to switch over to these large battery systems during peak pricing hours and utilities are finding it cheaper to provide battery-stored power rather than "turning on" natural gas fueled peaking power plants during peak demand. As with solar and wind, we can only expect the storage technology to become cheaper and more efficient in the future.
2015 was the first year the world saw a reduction in global emissions during a year of economic growth, albeit weak. Obviously, the economic downturn in China, India, and Asia in general had a lot to do with that. The real question is whether wind and solar can become attractive enough alternatives for those Asian dynamos to forgo using coal if and when their economies pick up again. Now declining global emissions do nothing to solve the problems that are "baked in", so to speak, due the amount of carbon dioxide we have already put into the atmosphere. But it is a start to reducing global warming's impact and as the technology for solar and wind improves along with some global political will, the day of declining emissions may be a lot closer than we think.
Another innovation that also helps reduce carbon emissions is the exponential improvement in battery storage systems. Battery backup is not just for your phone or computer anymore. Big energy consumers are finding it cheaper to switch over to these large battery systems during peak pricing hours and utilities are finding it cheaper to provide battery-stored power rather than "turning on" natural gas fueled peaking power plants during peak demand. As with solar and wind, we can only expect the storage technology to become cheaper and more efficient in the future.
2015 was the first year the world saw a reduction in global emissions during a year of economic growth, albeit weak. Obviously, the economic downturn in China, India, and Asia in general had a lot to do with that. The real question is whether wind and solar can become attractive enough alternatives for those Asian dynamos to forgo using coal if and when their economies pick up again. Now declining global emissions do nothing to solve the problems that are "baked in", so to speak, due the amount of carbon dioxide we have already put into the atmosphere. But it is a start to reducing global warming's impact and as the technology for solar and wind improves along with some global political will, the day of declining emissions may be a lot closer than we think.
Wednesday, April 20, 2016
Mercury After Sundown
Mercury, the innermost planet in our solar system, reached its greatest elongation Monday night but, of course, it was cloudy around here. Fortunately, however, the planet should be easy to see in the north/northwest about 45 minutes after sundown for the next week to ten days. It will still be twilight, but if you can find the Pleiades, Mercury will be the bright object almost directly south of that open cluster, fairly low on the horizon. In a telescope, the planet appears as a crescent with one third of the planet illuminated. Hopefully, I can get out one evening and try to get an image of it for my astrophotography adventure.
Spring in Southern Connecticut
After a few days in a row of temperatures in the 60s and even 70s (finally!) and the forecast for more of the same in the next few days, the buds on most of the trees here in southern Fairfield County have just opened up. And in another week or two they will pretty much all be in full bloom. Maybe it's just me in my old age, but it seems like the transition from winter to summer that is spring is a lot shorter than I remember - it all just happens so quickly now.
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The Cherry Blossoms Are Already Out |
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The Oak Is Has Just Popped |
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The Lilacs Are Getting Ready to Blossom
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Astrophotography Adventure (cont'd) - First Photos
So, here we go - the very first attempt at imaging. There were two inviting targets to shoot at, the Moon and Jupiter. And here are the rather poor results:
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Jupiter |
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The Moon
Both shots terribly overexposed!! Obviously, I need to become more familiar with the NightCap Pro application. I probably need the use the low ISO boost option and cut down the exposure time even more. And I've also found it hard to make sure I am properly focused when looking at what I see in the app. But it's a start and it's clear this can be done. I think it's just going to take some trial and error with the app in order to get things right. But that is true of any kind of astrophotography you do.
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Tuesday, April 19, 2016
The Importance of Feeling the Bern
Just a quick addendum to my "Feeling the Burn" post, specifically referencing the incredible importance of the Sanders' candidacy moving the Overton window to the left and raising the issues that are important not only to the Democratic Party, but to the nation itself. John Judis had a marvelous post on how you can absolutely support the political guideposts that Sanders has laid out while still recognizing the necessity of voting for Hillary if she wins the nomination. Sanders' positions on free college education, single-payer health plan, and the need to overturn Citizens United and restore full voting rights for all are now part of the mainstream political conversation. And, incredibly, and seemingly under the radar, he has also moved acceptable views on the ever-intractable Israeli/Palestinian issue. It is hard to believe that a candidate, even a candidate of the Jewish faith as Sanders is, could say that Israel's action in Gaza was "disproportionate" and that the Palestinians need to be treated with respect and not have those statements cause over-the-top outrage but instead apparently receive applause, especially when those statements were made in New York. Hopefully he can move the acceptable views on this issue in the same way that Duncan Black started changing the whole conversation about Social Security.
It is just another example of how important Sanders' candidacy is. And whatever happens tonight in New York, I hope Bernie stays in it all the way to the convention if he loses. His message is too important and bears repeating so the whole country can hear - he is laying down the markers for a progressive future.
It is just another example of how important Sanders' candidacy is. And whatever happens tonight in New York, I hope Bernie stays in it all the way to the convention if he loses. His message is too important and bears repeating so the whole country can hear - he is laying down the markers for a progressive future.
Traffic Question
How is it that you can be cruising along at 65mph on I95 and then suddenly traffic comes to a complete stop. After crawling along for a minute or so, all of sudden the road opens up and you are back up at 65. Somewhere in the haze of my formal education, I think I remember a statistical/mathematical theory that covers this phenomenon. But it is just another one of those increasing number of things that I find incomprehensible.
Taxing Moments for States
The layoffs have begun in the Connecticut state government as budget talks continue and Governor Malloy opts not to increase taxes in order to close the deficit. As the Times article indicates, Connecticut gets one half of its tax revenue via the income tax. Unfortunately, as income inequality increases and the top 0.1% get richer, this means that the state is actually relying on fewer and fewer people for more and more of that income tax. Correspondingly, as the rest of us seem to end up in lower paying jobs, the tax base provided by the majority of the population is shrinking. New Jersey has recently run into this problem when just one taxpayer's move to Florida has actually put the state budget in jeopardy. Now part of this is a distinctly New York City metropolitan area problem, as the outrageous money made on Wall Street has also been a lucrative tax source for New York and the neighboring states and those states seem to have become over-reliant on those incomes. But no state should be in a position where a single individual or, for that matter, corporation has so much influence on their tax base. Now the obvious answer is to have income spread rather evenly over a large portion of taxpaying public. But that is obviously not a problem the states can resolve in the short term. Cutting spending, as Connecticut is doing, is another alternative, but that can only take them so far. The only other option seems to be increasing consumption or sales taxes but that is a place that politicians are loathe to go. In the end, that may be their only choice unless they can find some other creative solution.
Monday, April 18, 2016
Feeling the Burn
I know this is the time of the presidential primary season when supporters of a candidate behind in the delegate count say they will NEVER vote for the presumptive nominee. And, yes, 99% of these same voters will come back into the fold and vote for that nominee when November rolls around. I understand the passion of the Sanders' supporters - in fact I agree with him on the majority of the issues. But I must say I am dismayed and a little bit shocked by the "Bernie or Bust" and #neverhillary movement, especially coming from those people who, if I may say so, are old enough to know better. Perhaps I can forgive his younger supporters who may not have been focused on relatively recent history; but I can't forgive those older voters who vow to not participate or, worse, support Trump over Hillary because, like Sanders, Trump has shown disdain for our trade deals and doesn't play politics as usual. I have only two words for these people: Ralph Nader.
Those who ignore history are doomed to repeat it. Like Sanders, Nader believed the whole system was corrupt and he had a similar "pox on both their houses" when it came to distinguishing between the Republican and Democratic parties. And, because of those 2.74% of people who voted for him and countless others who did not bother to vote at all, we got one of the worst presidents in generations in George W. Bush - a president so bad even his own party has largely disowned him. We got a disastrous war in Iraq that has spawned a generation of terrorists, has destabilized not only Iraq but Syria, and creates enormous pressure on neighboring Jordan, Lebanon, and Turkey. We got Guantanamo and waterboarding. We got Katrina. We got John Roberts and Samuel Alito on the Supreme Court. We went from an over $200 million annual surplus to doubling our national debt, increasing income equality, and the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression that we are still trying to dig ourselves out of. And I could go on...
Listen, Bernie has run a great campaign, an honorable campaign. He has focused like a laser on the critical issues - money in politics, the power of Wall Street and the corporatocracy, free college education, single-payer health plan, and the way the game is currently rigged. He has steered clear of criticizing Clinton over all the faux-scandals like emailgate and Benghazi! and focused on substantive areas where she is weak - the close ties to Wall Street, the interventionist foreign policy, and her general incrementalism. He has moved Hillary to the left on the minimum wage, TPP, and the Keystone pipeline; and has moved the Overton window to the left accordingly. And this is probably just the beginning of the debate within the Democratic party between the incrementalism represented by Clinton and more revolutionary change represented by Sanders and Elizabeth Warren.
The stakes in this election are incredibly high and to ponder sitting the election out is, frankly, unthinkable. The Supreme Court potentially hangs in the balance with repercussions for women, labor, voting rights, immigration, and restraining the power of the corporatocracy. I may prefer a single-payer plan, but I'm not willing to put the millions of people who finally could get affordable health insurance at risk by letting a Republican Congress and President repeal Obamacare through the budget reconciliation process - I doubt they would do it, but do I want to find out?
With Sanders and Warren, progressives have a strong voice in the current Democratic party. It is possible that Democrats will take over the Senate this year. So, rather than taking the ball and going home because our preferred candidate is not getting the nomination, we should all be focused on winning more congressional seats in off-year elections and retaking so many of the state houses that we have lost. The demographics are with us and the opportunity to break the gerrymandered grip that Republicans have on the House could be within our grasp with the 2020 Census, as is a filibuster-proof majority in the Senate. It would be nice to take these opportunities because then there would be the chance for the revolutionary change that Sanders' supporters seek.
Now this whole post may be moot in another 36 hours if Bernie wins New York. But if he doesn't, or the next time Hillary waffles or obfuscates, and you find yourself thinking you just can't vote for her, put that thought out of your mind and repeat after me: Ralph Nader, Ralph Nader, Ralph Nader.
Those who ignore history are doomed to repeat it. Like Sanders, Nader believed the whole system was corrupt and he had a similar "pox on both their houses" when it came to distinguishing between the Republican and Democratic parties. And, because of those 2.74% of people who voted for him and countless others who did not bother to vote at all, we got one of the worst presidents in generations in George W. Bush - a president so bad even his own party has largely disowned him. We got a disastrous war in Iraq that has spawned a generation of terrorists, has destabilized not only Iraq but Syria, and creates enormous pressure on neighboring Jordan, Lebanon, and Turkey. We got Guantanamo and waterboarding. We got Katrina. We got John Roberts and Samuel Alito on the Supreme Court. We went from an over $200 million annual surplus to doubling our national debt, increasing income equality, and the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression that we are still trying to dig ourselves out of. And I could go on...
Listen, Bernie has run a great campaign, an honorable campaign. He has focused like a laser on the critical issues - money in politics, the power of Wall Street and the corporatocracy, free college education, single-payer health plan, and the way the game is currently rigged. He has steered clear of criticizing Clinton over all the faux-scandals like emailgate and Benghazi! and focused on substantive areas where she is weak - the close ties to Wall Street, the interventionist foreign policy, and her general incrementalism. He has moved Hillary to the left on the minimum wage, TPP, and the Keystone pipeline; and has moved the Overton window to the left accordingly. And this is probably just the beginning of the debate within the Democratic party between the incrementalism represented by Clinton and more revolutionary change represented by Sanders and Elizabeth Warren.
The stakes in this election are incredibly high and to ponder sitting the election out is, frankly, unthinkable. The Supreme Court potentially hangs in the balance with repercussions for women, labor, voting rights, immigration, and restraining the power of the corporatocracy. I may prefer a single-payer plan, but I'm not willing to put the millions of people who finally could get affordable health insurance at risk by letting a Republican Congress and President repeal Obamacare through the budget reconciliation process - I doubt they would do it, but do I want to find out?
With Sanders and Warren, progressives have a strong voice in the current Democratic party. It is possible that Democrats will take over the Senate this year. So, rather than taking the ball and going home because our preferred candidate is not getting the nomination, we should all be focused on winning more congressional seats in off-year elections and retaking so many of the state houses that we have lost. The demographics are with us and the opportunity to break the gerrymandered grip that Republicans have on the House could be within our grasp with the 2020 Census, as is a filibuster-proof majority in the Senate. It would be nice to take these opportunities because then there would be the chance for the revolutionary change that Sanders' supporters seek.
Now this whole post may be moot in another 36 hours if Bernie wins New York. But if he doesn't, or the next time Hillary waffles or obfuscates, and you find yourself thinking you just can't vote for her, put that thought out of your mind and repeat after me: Ralph Nader, Ralph Nader, Ralph Nader.
The Church Confession
Just a quick review of the Church concert on Saturday night at FTC Stage One. I admit that I was barely familiar with the band but did remember they had the big hit in the 80s with "Under the Milky Way". There were two sets - the first set comprised their entire 1982 album Blurred Revolution plus one other song; the second set was songs from across their ouvre, including their most popular numbers. At the risk of insulting the band, I would describe them as kind of like the House of Love with quite a bit more electric guitar work. The band was dynamic and it seemed they enjoyed the intimacy of the venue. With the passion and professional craftsmanship of the band and the two sets, it was easily worth the price of admission.
Reality Check - Debt and Deficits
Monday's Reality Check - a weekly presentation of facts and figures to help us all discuss important issues with some degree of understanding. Because, despite living in this post-modern, post-truth world, the fact remains that facts still remain.
Continuing our discussion of the US Federal Budget, today we are going to be looking at two important elements that, too often, get confused - the deficit and the debt. The deficit is the annual amount that spending by the government exceeds revenue collected. As we mentioned in the prior post, the deficit for FY 2015 is $438 billion. On the other hand, the debt is simply the total amount of outstanding debt at any given time. As of March, 2015, the total federal government debt came to around $18.100 trillion. Now one of the problems in talking about these government figures is that the numbers themselves are so staggeringly large that they are virtually incomprehensible to most of us ordinary humans. So let's try to put these numbers into some kind of perspective that we can understand.
First, let's just point out that the $438 billion in deficit for FY 2015 only adds around 2.4% more to the total debt. So think about someone who has $100,000 in mortgage and credit card debt and they added $2,400 to that debt this year. I don't think that we would necessarily consider that person irresponsible, especially since they were keeping up-to-date with the interest payments on their debt. And we certainly wouldn't say that their debts were "spiraling out of control", as we often hear from some pundits.
Now let's look at these numbers in comparison to the US economy as a whole. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is defined as the total output of goods and services in a specific time. For 2015, US GDP was measured at nearly $18 trillion. Accordingly, the annual deficit of $438 billion is again just above 2.4% of the US annual GDP and this would be the equivalent of $2,400 for a person making an annual income of $100,000. Again, I don't think we would call this person profligate or a reckless borrower. And, as it happens, economists have a rule of thumb that, barring unusual economic conditions, deficits should be around 2 or 3 percent of GDP. So, the current US deficit is right in that recommended range.
But, you're thinking, the deficit may be fine at 2.4% of GDP, but what about that $18 trillion in total debt we owe. Well, that debt is a little more that 100% of our nearly $18 trillion GDP. Again, thinking about our example of someone with $100,000 in annual income, this would be the equivalent of a $100,000 mortgage - an amount we would hardly consider an outrageous debt. Now, economists recommend a debt-to-GDP ratio of around 60 or 70 percent and, therefore, they have some concern about our level of debt. But we have to remember that we are recovering from the worst financial collapse since the Great Depression in the 1930s, certainly an unusual economic environment. And it should also be pointed out that Japan has maintained debt-to-GDP ratios of around 200% for a number of years, seemingly without the adverse consequences some economists have predicted.
Speaking from my own fiscal history, when I graduated from college, my debt to income ratio was about 175%. And, similarly, when I bought my first house, the ratio was about 130%. And when I used my home equity to renovate what would become my current house, my debt-to-income ratio was close to 200%. So it would be pretty ludicrous for me to say that the current US deficit and debt is unsustainable when, by standard measures, my own finances were in much worse shape than the government's. And I can't imagine what the ratios are for younger people today with the cost of a college education. Now you may say - wait, the US Government only collects a portion of total US GDP in taxes - and that would be true. But, by the same token, an individual with $100,000 in income also has expenses not related to just paying the mortgage. The bank holding your mortgage will not be asking for that whole debt to be repaid all at once and, similarly, the US Government does not have to pay off the debt in one fell swoop.
To sum up, when you actually start comparing the US debt situation with our own personal finances, you realize the situation is not nearly as dire as some would like to make it out to be. Now, in further Reality Checks, we will discuss some potentially worrying trend lines, the differences between the government and the family budget, and the reasons why balancing the budget and eliminating the debt is a political fantasy. But that is for another day.
Saturday, April 16, 2016
Note to Readers
The weekend is, well, the weekend. So expect posting to be spotty at best. Here's just a few pics to let you know that Spring is just about here:
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Some Grape Hyacinths(?) |
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And A Robin |
Friday, April 15, 2016
Astrophotography Adventure (cont'd)
In my prior post, I discussed the telescopic equipment that I decided upon in order to do some astrophotography on the cheap. As in regular photography, both film and digital, there is a lot you can do with an image via post-processing. The de-facto standard these days seems to be Photoshop. But I've never been a big Adobe fan and I really am not a fan of their new cloud-based application; and, face it, I'm doing this project on the cheap and there is nothing much cheaper than free. So for image processing, I have downloaded GIMP. It may not be as intuitive or as glitzy as Photoshop but it should do the basics that I'm looking to get done. And that's all I'm looking for. There are lots of people out there who know all the tools that these imaging manipulation programs provide and who could probably improve any of my images by about 100%. But I'm just looking to get something that looks pretty good without a ton of post-processing effort. So GIMP it will be.
Before the Hubble Space Telescope and all these incredible pictures from various JPL programs, most people were totally amazed by their first view of the moon or planets through a telescope. And I still get that buzz even today. But, more recently, some people's reaction is "it doesn't look like what I expected from the pictures I've seen". And that is absolutely true. Most visual observations will never have the clarity and detail of a good image of the same object. This is especially true of deep space objects (DSOs) such as galaxies and nebulae. For most visual observers, these are just fuzzy patches in the sky with none of the color and detail that you see in professional images. For example, you might recognize this iconic image of the Horsehead Nebula in Orion:
The fact is that most visual astronomers, even professional astronomers, have never even glimpsed this nebula with their own eyes. And, even the ones who have can not possibly see the range of colors and detail of the image above, which was probably a stack of multiple images taken with multiple filters and then heavily post-processed . It is only in photographs that the details like gaseous clouds and spiral arms can be captured. And the reason for this is quite simple. Our eyes receive a continuous stream of light that our brain continually translates into an image. Photographic sensors, on the hand, collect that light and accumulate it. And the accumulated light is what makes for such detailed pictures. That is also why, in the days of film, astrophotography required tracking for such long periods of time - because the film needed to accumulate as much light as possible.
These days, however, we can cheat a little bit. Rather than having to track these objects as they rotate across the sky for hours, we can take short videos or multiple 15-30 second exposures and "stack" these images together, basically accumulating almost the same amount of light and, therefore, detail as an equivalent longer exposure. This stacking technique is also what will allow me to use the alt-azimuth tracking mount for astrophotography as opposed to the typical equatorial mount needed for tracking objects for longer periods as the exposures I will be making will be short enough to avoid any field rotation (essentially the stars seeming rotation around the Earth's polar axis as opposed to directly east to west across the sky).
Happily, the two stacking programs I am going to use are both free - who could have guessed! Registax is a program that takes video files, picks out the best individual frames from that video, and then stacks those individual frames into an image. Even if the object travels a bit within the video, the program will still be able to align and stack the individual frames. Registax is particularly useful for imaging planets as it is difficult to take an individual photo of a bright object like a planet at exactly the right moment of least atmospheric disturbance. (The quantity of atmospheric disturbance is known by the highly scientific term "seeing" and usually limits most earth-based telescopes to magnifications under 300x.) Instead, we take a short video and hope that there are enough quality, clear frames to create a good image. Deep Sky Stacker is appropriately named as it is more useful for images of DSOs like nebulae, galaxies, and clusters. The program takes the individual multiple second exposures you have selected, identifies and aligns a star map of those images, and then stacks them together to produce a final image. This also allows you take multiple images that are not 100% aligned - the program will do that for you.
Finally, I need to be able to optimize the iPhone camera. For brighter objects, I will need a low ISO and short exposure times. For fainter DSOs, I need high ISO and the ability to take 15-30 second exposures. To do this, I have installed NightCap Pro at a cost of $1.99 from the App Store. NightCap Pro gives me the ability to control ISO, exposure, focus, light boost, and noise reduction. It also allows me to set up a series of photos with long exposure times and also has the option for TIFF image quality that is virtually lossless. It is the perfect app for iPhone astrophotography.
With these four programs installed, I'm finally ready to go out and actually take some pictures! I'll keep you updated as the adventure continues...
Before the Hubble Space Telescope and all these incredible pictures from various JPL programs, most people were totally amazed by their first view of the moon or planets through a telescope. And I still get that buzz even today. But, more recently, some people's reaction is "it doesn't look like what I expected from the pictures I've seen". And that is absolutely true. Most visual observations will never have the clarity and detail of a good image of the same object. This is especially true of deep space objects (DSOs) such as galaxies and nebulae. For most visual observers, these are just fuzzy patches in the sky with none of the color and detail that you see in professional images. For example, you might recognize this iconic image of the Horsehead Nebula in Orion:
The fact is that most visual astronomers, even professional astronomers, have never even glimpsed this nebula with their own eyes. And, even the ones who have can not possibly see the range of colors and detail of the image above, which was probably a stack of multiple images taken with multiple filters and then heavily post-processed . It is only in photographs that the details like gaseous clouds and spiral arms can be captured. And the reason for this is quite simple. Our eyes receive a continuous stream of light that our brain continually translates into an image. Photographic sensors, on the hand, collect that light and accumulate it. And the accumulated light is what makes for such detailed pictures. That is also why, in the days of film, astrophotography required tracking for such long periods of time - because the film needed to accumulate as much light as possible.
These days, however, we can cheat a little bit. Rather than having to track these objects as they rotate across the sky for hours, we can take short videos or multiple 15-30 second exposures and "stack" these images together, basically accumulating almost the same amount of light and, therefore, detail as an equivalent longer exposure. This stacking technique is also what will allow me to use the alt-azimuth tracking mount for astrophotography as opposed to the typical equatorial mount needed for tracking objects for longer periods as the exposures I will be making will be short enough to avoid any field rotation (essentially the stars seeming rotation around the Earth's polar axis as opposed to directly east to west across the sky).
Happily, the two stacking programs I am going to use are both free - who could have guessed! Registax is a program that takes video files, picks out the best individual frames from that video, and then stacks those individual frames into an image. Even if the object travels a bit within the video, the program will still be able to align and stack the individual frames. Registax is particularly useful for imaging planets as it is difficult to take an individual photo of a bright object like a planet at exactly the right moment of least atmospheric disturbance. (The quantity of atmospheric disturbance is known by the highly scientific term "seeing" and usually limits most earth-based telescopes to magnifications under 300x.) Instead, we take a short video and hope that there are enough quality, clear frames to create a good image. Deep Sky Stacker is appropriately named as it is more useful for images of DSOs like nebulae, galaxies, and clusters. The program takes the individual multiple second exposures you have selected, identifies and aligns a star map of those images, and then stacks them together to produce a final image. This also allows you take multiple images that are not 100% aligned - the program will do that for you.
Finally, I need to be able to optimize the iPhone camera. For brighter objects, I will need a low ISO and short exposure times. For fainter DSOs, I need high ISO and the ability to take 15-30 second exposures. To do this, I have installed NightCap Pro at a cost of $1.99 from the App Store. NightCap Pro gives me the ability to control ISO, exposure, focus, light boost, and noise reduction. It also allows me to set up a series of photos with long exposure times and also has the option for TIFF image quality that is virtually lossless. It is the perfect app for iPhone astrophotography.
With these four programs installed, I'm finally ready to go out and actually take some pictures! I'll keep you updated as the adventure continues...
End of an Era at Metropolitan Opera
James Levine, the music director at the Metropolitan Opera, is stepping down after 45 years with the company. Whatever you may have thought of him, (he was always a fan favorite), there is no doubt that he was determined force that helped build and maintain the reputation of the orchestra and of the Metropolitan Opera itself throughout his tenure. If you have never been to an opera and/or only seen it on TV, do yourself a favor and try it. You don't have to pay a fortune for nosebleed seats at the Met itself; just try the Metropolitan Opera in HD which shows live opera in HD at movie theatres through the US and, indeed, all over the world. The camera work, behind the scenes interviews during intermissions, and superb production are all well worth the $25 or so for a ticket. And you will never go wrong if you try any opera by Mozart - the music will transport you. Where else can you see some of the world's best artists perform for over 3 hours for 25 bucks! Try it.
Thursday, April 14, 2016
Going to (the) Church
Saturday night, the Church, an Australian band that's been around since 1980, will be playing at FTC Stage One. Stage One is a truly intimate venue and a great place to see a show. I know the Church from the new-wave era with their big hit in the 80s, Under the Milky Way, which you can enjoy below. But, apparently, the band, which has largely remained intact and has continued to put out successful albums for the last 35 years, has come "to feature slower tempos and surreal soundscapes reminiscent of dream pop and post-rock", according to Wikipedia. So it should be an interesting show.