Democrats Must Be Allowed To Do More Than Clean Up Republican Failures

A few months ago, I wrote a piece about how Republican moderates, a vanishing breed, I admit, are once again asking the Democrats to clean up the mess that has been created under GOP leadership. It's been this way for the last 40 years. Carter had to bring the country together after Watergate. Clinton had to deal with G.H.W. Bush recession and deficits created by Reagan. And Obama had to virtually save the world's financial system after G.W. Bush and the greatest economic collapse since the Great Depression.

It looks increasingly likely that Democrats will be in that same position again in the wake of Trump, perhaps having to deal with the fallout of a political scandal possibly even worse than Watergate and a recession with enormous deficits similar to the early 1990s or 2008 at the same time.

There has already been enough criminal behavior uncovered involving Trump's emoluments and obstruction of justice to warrant impeachment. In fact, even before the midterms, some of those vanishing GOP moderates were actually demanding Democrats in the House start impeachment procedures when they regained power, as it was assumed they would, in January. Now, with the extraordinary evidence of collusion with the Russians mounting every single day, those demands will become even greater.

There was a reason that Trump devoted most of his energy to electing Republican Senators in the recent midterms. The Senate is Trump's only hope to provide the firewall necessary to keep him from being convicted of impeachment and, based on the cult-like behavior of at least 45 Republican Senators over the last two years, acquittal of impeachment would seem the most probable outcome.

The new Democratic House looks to be faced with a choice come January. Assuming Mueller provides even more direct evidence of collusion, the pressure from the centrist institutionalists and the left to impeach will become enormous. But, unless there is a clear indication that Senate Republicans have had a massive change of heart, that process is doomed to failure. Moreover, moving on impeachment will play into Trump's hands, creating the pitched partisan battle that he thrives on. More importantly, that process will dominate the agenda for probably the entire 2019 legislative year, sucking time, energy, and political capital from the real Democratic agenda that is intended to set the party up for the 2020 election.

Assuming Trump survives impeachment, then the 2020 election becomes yet another referendum on Trump and his Republican protectors and much of the Democratic message will be overwhelmed by that partisan battle, much as Clinton's message was overwhelmed by Trump and EMAILS!. On the other hand, if Trump is impeached and convicted, the pressure from the professional pundit class on the 2020 Democratic nominee to "bring the country together" will be enormous. That will require "bipartisan" solutions and a more centrist point of view, once again blunting the progressive Democratic agenda.

Either way, assuming a Democrat wins in 2020, a big assumption, I know, and Democrats hold the House and squeak out a slim majority in the Senate, another Republican mess will be waiting to be cleaned up, thwarting the Democratic agenda again, just as it did under Obama.

We are in the midst of the second longest period economic expansion in history, not surprising since we are coming off the greatest financial crisis since the Great Depression. And yet there are clear danger signs on the horizon, some of which are driven by Trump policies.

Non-financial corporate debt is at an all-time high as a percentage of the economy and much of that is being bundled into collateralized loan obligations (CLOs), mirroring the way lower rated mortgages were bundled into AAA rated securities before the Great Recession. New home sales, a key driver of the economy, have cratered as it looks like higher interest rates are starting to have a detrimental effect. Auto loan delinquencies are at their highest point in 6 years, since the tail end of the financial crisis. The GM layoffs may have had more to do with Americans preference for lightweight trucks than cars, but, even so, vehicle sales, another driver of the economy, have been slowly dropping since 2015. This trend is only exacerbated by Trump's steel and aluminum tariffs but also by new tax law that actually encourages manufacturing to move overseas, in direct contrast to how the bill was sold. Similarly, Trump's agricultural tariffs are driving increased farm bankruptcies while at the same time increasing price for consumers.

The US economy is still in decent shape, but the odds of a 2020 recession are growing. In addition, so is the US budget deficit, which is expected to be close to $1 trillion in 2019 and even higher in 2020, much of which is a result of shrinking corporate tax receipts due to the new tax bill.  If a recession does come, those deficits will explode even higher, which could also push interest rates up as well.

That, again, will create problems for Democrats if they do gain control in 2020. The demands for "austerity" and "entitlement reform" in order to bring the deficit under control will be as loud as they were after 2008. The GOP mantra about the deficit will once again be front and center and the pundit class will gladly take it up again, despite at least hopefully knowing now that the GOP's claims are in bad faith. And once again, real Democratic priorities like health care and jobs will have to take a back seat to cleaning up the Trump economic mess.

Democrats continue to live in this cycle of having to spend their hard-won political capital cleaning up after Republican failures, mitigating their ability to advance the Democratic agenda as far and as easily as they could. It has been that way for the last three Democratic presidents, Carter, Clinton, and Obama. Meanwhile, Clinton and Obama left a thriving economy and a successful presidency for their GOP successors to squander on destructive Republican policies.

Somehow, in 2020, despite all the potential obstacles, we must break out of this cycle. That will take courage and bold legislative initiatives that will be required to break the financial and corporate structures that lead us to these disasters in the first place. But that's a post for another day. For today, it is just enough to recognize and prepare for the difficulties and opposition that lie ahead if Democrats do gain power in 2020.

Disrespect And Uncertainty

I  know this is probably beating a dead horse and meaningless in the context of the lawlessness that currently overwhelms us, but you really have to marvel at the current levels of hypocrisy in so many areas. You might remember back in the day when business leaders were constantly complaining that Obama didn't respect them and was clueless about their supposedly enormous contributions to the country. Some CEOs even blamed his attitude on the sluggish post-financial crash recovery as well as harping on the fact that the Obama administration wasn't providing the certainty that was required for them to invest. Those complaints were obviously picked up and amplified by Republican politicians.

Well, Trump has spent virtually his entire presidency attacking business leaders and their companies with whom he has had some beef. He has threatened those businesses with increased regulation, removal of subsidies and tax breaks, and even unfounded investigations and prosecutions.

The latest of these attacks comes against General Motors which is laying off around 14,000 workers and shuttering a number of US and Canadian plants. Trump demanded that GM "better damn well open a new plant there very quickly" and threatened that there would be a "problem" if that didn't happen. He then followed that up with a threat to "all GM subsidies including electric cars". Republicans have pitched in with attacks on GM management. On Morning Joe, Ohio Republican Mike Turner blamed the layoffs entirely on mismanagement by the leadership at GM.

Needless to say, business leaders are largely silent on these attacks. There is no talk of being disrespected or attacked by Trump. There are few complaints, mostly from small business owners, about the costs imposed by Trump's tariffs. There is no worry that Trump's threats are creating "uncertainty". There is no pushback against Republican attacks on CEOs' poor management. Those leaders got their enormous corporate tax cut and are just taking that money to the bank.

On the other hand, you can imaging the outcry if these similar tactics had actually been employed by Obama. The screams of "socialism" and "government takeover of business" would have deafening. The only thing deafening today, however, is the silence of the business community.

The lesson, of course, is that the business complaints against Obama never should have been taken seriously to begin with. Business leaders were not feeling disrespected and their business decisions were not colored by any uncertainty created by the Obama administration. What they were really feeling was the fear that the gravy train they had all been feasting on for the last three or four decades might actually be coming to an end. Too bad it couldn't have been reported that way.

The Manafort Mystery

So Paul Manafort has managed to void his cooperation agreement with Robert Mueller by continuing to lie to the Special Counsel. This is a guy who had already been caught trying to witness tamper in his earlier trial and had his bail accordingly revoked so I guess it should not come as a surprise that he would still try to get away with lying to Mueller. So, while it may not be a surprise, it remains unclear what his motivation might be.

Since Manafort is clearly still in hock to his criminal Russian partners, one obvious rationale for his actions would be that he knows telling the truth is most likely to get him or his family seriously injured. On the other hand, as Whitey Bulger found out, spending double digit years in prison is not necessarily a way to stay safe.

Alternatively, it may not be a coincidence that Jerome Corsi's plea negotiations also seem to have fallen apart at this same exact time. That lends credence to the theory that Trump has dangled the possibility of pardons to protect himself and his family. Manafort, of course, probably poses an existential threat to Trump because of his position as campaign manager and his close personal interaction with the President. Besides his immediate family, Roger Stone is Trump's other potential existential threat and protecting Corsi, who is basically a flunky, although perhaps a knowledgeable one, is a way to protect Stone. But even Trump's pardon won't protect Manafort, Corsi, and Stone from potential state charges, with Manafort almost certain to be charged. Additionally, Trump's offers of pardon or the actual pardons themselves could be the basis for impeachment, as they were for Nixon.

While it may take time to discern Manafort's reasoning, if ever, it is also unclear what kind of impact this will have on Mueller's investigation. One take is that this is a pretty clear blow to his investigation. Evidence that Mueller had hoped to obtain from Mueller is now not available and any evidence he has gleaned from Manafort, including conversations with Trump and his family, will be tainted by the fact that he is a liar and may not be admissible in court. However, that may not be as bad as it initially sounds, because the case against Trump will not be a legal proceeding but a political one where it is more than likely that evidence will emerge.

In addition, Mueller must have enough proof that Manafort is actually lying in order for him to make the filing to void the plea agreement on such grounds. That implies that Mueller already has the evidence and Manafort would merely be another corroborating witness to it. That does not negate the possibility that there is evidence that Mueller got solely from Manafort but it clearly indicates that he certainly had more than Manafort thought he did.

All of which brings us to the most interesting theory of all from Marcy Wheeler over at Emptywheel, namely that Mueller continued to let Manafort lie to him in order to entrap others, including Trump. Rudy Giuliani has always maintained that Manafort's legal team was still sharing information with the President's legal team all during his period of "cooperation". If the Trump team believed that Mueller was swallowing Manafort's lies, then that would color their answers to Mueller in Trump's open book test. Now that Mueller has Trump's answers, he has no reason to continue to let Manafort lie.

Mueller will be detailing all the instances where Manafort lied in a subsequent filing at his sentencing. As Wheeler suggests, the filing will essentially be Mueller's report, outlining all the areas where Manafort and perhaps Trump have lied. "There’s your Mueller report, which will be provided in a form that Matt Whitaker won’t be able to suppress". You can hear the screams of "perjury trap" already from Giuliani and others.

Who knows, perhaps Manafort has engaged in criminal behavior for so long he, like Trump, just can't stop himself and had no rationale reason for continuing to lie to Mueller. But it certainly seems clear we will have a lot more answers to so many questions sooner rather than later and you can already see Trump feeling the pressure.

Recognizing The Autocrat

Last Wednesday, the New York Times had a front page that highlighted how Trump's continual abuses have become normalized and each new outrage seemingly makes us more and more inured to prior ones. At the same time, it also illustrated how we conveniently ignore calling out dysfunctions in our own country that we would quickly condemn in others.

The paper had two stories at the top right of the front page reporting on Trump's refusal to accept the determination of the intelligence community that Jamal Khashoggi's murder had been ordered by Saudi Arabian Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MbS). Below those two stories and to the left was the story that Trump had ordered the prosecution of both Hillary Clinton and James Comey.

The subheading for one of the Saudi stories was "A Cynical Blueprint For Autocrats", describing how Trump's attitude toward the Saudis sent a signal to all foreign leaders that killing domestic opponents and committing human rights crimes would be tolerated as long as they pursue a mercantilist foreign policy toward the United States.

Of course, the Times article makes no mention of it, but there is certainly evidence that the mercantilist approach has an even better chance of success if it is directed toward the President, his family, and his businesses. That certainly seems to be the case when it comes to Trump's appeasement of Russian and Putin.

There is certainly evidence that this is also the case with Saudi Arabia. Trump received Saudi money when his businesses were struggling in the 1990s. His hotel in New York was set to lose money last quarter until a large, seemingly unnecessary, booking from MbS helped push it into the black. There are indications Trump was pursuing a Trump-branded hotel or hotels in Saudi Arabia as recently as 2016.

Furthermore, MbS has bragged that he has Jared Kushner "in his pocket".  It is unclear why he might think that. One possibility is that MbS was instrumental in getting Qatar to bail Kushner out of his disastrous investment in 666 Fifth Avenue. Another possibility is that Kushner was deeply involved with the unusual Saudi, Emirati, and Israeli alliance to help Trump in 2016 in return for isolating and weakening Iran. That theory was lent more credence when it was reported that Mueller was investigating John Hannah, Dick Cheney's former national security aide, for his involvement with George Nader, who is apparently cooperating with Mueller's team.

Considering Trump's fanciful and false claims that the Saudis are investing hundreds of billions of dollars in the US economy and creating hundreds of thousands of jobs, it certainly seems as though feeding the Trump family racketeering scheme is the real blueprint for foreign autocrats. one that many foreign leaders easily recognize.

But that story is yet another Trump diversion from the real outrage of the day, namely that the President ordered the prosecution of Clinton and Comey. The fact that then White House Counsel Don McGahn managed to persuade Trump not to take such action hardly minimizes its egregiousness. Moreover, we have no idea whether Trump did not follow through on his intention because the arguments McGahn presented were persuasive or because of Trump's well-known lack of focus, best illustrated by Gary Cohn's story about preventing the President from exiting NAFTA and the South Korean trade agreement.

The fact that McGahn was able to thwart Trump at the time should give us no comfort. Trump has continued to press that issue and one of the reasons Matt Whitaker was appointed acting Attorney General was precisely because he promoted the same idea. Meanwhile, the right-wing media and Trump's sycophants in the House continue to press the same issue.

One day after these stories appeared, Politico detailed how Trump overcame the objections of his chief of staff, the Secretary of Homeland Security, and legal officials in the White House and authorized the troops previously deployed in a brazen political ploy to be able to use lethal force. Some constitutional scholars questioned whether the order violated the Posse Comitatus Act that prohibits federal troops from acting as law enforcement on American soil.

There are plenty of other problems with this order beyond its potential violation of Posse Comitatus. First, the order was signed by John Kelly under instructions from Trump and is described by the administration as a "Cabinet order". There is no such beast as a "Cabinet order" and that, as well as the fact that it is signed by Kelly who is not in the military chain of command, gives the order no constitutional weight.

This could be interpreted in numerous ways. It could be that Kelly and Nielsen, with Mattis as a willing co-conspirator, are accomplishing the same thing that Cohn did, namely subverting Trump's attempt to implement a disastrous and potentially illegal policy. A darker interpretation is that no legal authority in the White House would sign off on the plan and this is yet another brazen attempt by Trump to circumvent the law of the land.

One other critical point is that, according to current US law, the so-called border extends 25 miles inland, an area that encompasses many of the major cities of the US. It does not take a great stretch of the imagination to envision Trump using this "order" to instruct the military to employ lethal force in support of CBP and ICE in a broad sweep for undocumented immigrants in so-called sanctuary cities.

All of this, the personal corruption driving policy, ordering the prosecution of political opponents, and employing the military in a brazen political ploy, including authorizing the use of military force potentially against American citizens on American soil, indicates we have entered banana republic territory and highlights Trump's autocratic proclivities. These are clearly not features of a well-functioning democracy.

My point in highlighting the Times' front page is not so much to criticize the paper for the articles involved. It is that what we clearly recognize as autocratic behavior in other foreign leaders seems to be difficult for some in the media to confront in Trump. Much of that is due to the fact that the media has been unable to effectively deal with the continual barrage of Trump's outrages and abuses which is designed to provide focus on individual scandals, real or imagined, such as EMAILS!!

Of course, no one is equating Trump's autocratic tendencies with MbS murdering his own citizens. But that low threshold is something we should all hope we never cross. At the same time, others say  that Trump is all bluster and never follows through on his most egregious plans. They note that, so far, Clinton and Comey are not being prosecuted because of McGahn's actions. But that is like saying the nuclear safeguards worked because a Soviet officer, Stanislav Petrov, ignored military protocol and relied on his "gut instinct", thereby averting nuclear war.

On the other hand, the safeguards clearly did not work when it came to lethal force at the border. Clearly, both Kelly and Nielsen, as well as the legal authorities in the White House, believed the order was problematic at best. And yet, all of those who opposed the policy either eventually caved to the President or allowed it to go forward as long as they were not involved.

Again, some may say that Mattis, despite having the authority to order lethal force be used, has opted not to fully arm the troops at the border, proving once again that Trump is all talk but little implementation. This argument also ignores the power of precedent in our current system. Presidential power once claimed without challenge becomes the basis for future actions.

Trump may be an ineffective autocrat, either by design or incompetence, but he is surely laying the groundwork if a truly effective one comes along.

Natural Weekends - Lichen And Moss

Natural Weekends - Clouds

Astronomy Adventure - Area Near Southwestern Edge Of The Moon

Here is a photo of the area near the southwestern edge of the Moon. The triangle of similar sized craters at the top are Kircher, Bettinus, and Zuchius in descending order. Below that, the crater with the high peak on one of the walls whose shadow casts across nearly the whole length of the crater floor is Phocylides. The large crater below that is Schickard and the peaked crater down at the bottom right is Vieta.

Technical details:

Scope: Starblast 4.5; tracking on

Magnification: ~200x

Camera: iPhone6 using NightCap Pro; Low ISO

Happy Turkey Day!

Census Citizenship Question Highlights Full Gamut Of Trump Admin Abuses

The entire story surrounding the addition of the citizenship question to the decennial census highlights the range of unethical and criminal behavior symptomatic of the Trump administration. It contains a broad spectrum of the various "strategies" that the Trump administration uses to essentially do what it wants, the law be damned.

The Trump administration apparently had two rationales for wanting to add the citizenship question. First, adding the question would help them shape the electorate for the next decade. Simply having the question would prompt fewer responses from a certain subset of voters who are primarily Democratic. In addition, it also prepared the groundwork for allowing states to redistrict based on the number of citizens rather than the total population. But the other rationale, the one which immigrants rights activists most feared, was to illegally use the citizenship data to target undocumented immigrants for detention or deportation.

In order to implement their plan, the administration at least realized the they would have to concoct some realistic cover story for the necessity of the citizenship question rather than admit the real reasons. Under the direction of Wilbur Ross, Jeff Session obliged. Sessions' DOJ requested the addition of the citizenship question under the pretense that the information would help the department pursue the enforcement of the Voting Rights Act (VRA). VRA cases often need to show how citizens, rather than a population, are being disenfranchised but the idea that Jeff Sessions was interested in enforcing the VRA doesn't pass the laugh test. In many ways, it was a perfectly Trumpian excuse and power play which could technically provide legal cover but was farcical to even believe the Trump administration would actually be interested in pursuing.

Of course, the Sessions' request was a ruse. But the façade needed to be maintained and Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross dutifully went up to Capitol Hill in March of 2018 and lied under oath, declaring that the request to add the citizenship question came from the DOJ when it was Ross himself who instigated the process at the urging of Steve Bannon and Kris Kobach. Those two were interested in the electoral impact that the citizenship question would have in the 2020s. Of course, this is not the first time that Ross has managed to lie to government officials and on his financial disclosure forms.

Now it has also been confirmed that the administration has also considered passing the citizenship information gleaned from the census to law enforcement, specifically ICE, confirming the worst fears of immigrants rights activities. The answers to census questions are, by law, supposed to be confidential but the administration is considering using a national security argument to override that confidentiality. This tactic is similar to the bogus national security rationale for the imposition of aluminum and steel tariffs and the deployment of over 5,000 troops to the southern border under the guise of a "national emergency" in a blatant political ploy.

Needless to say, the decision to add the citizenship question precipitated a number of court cases which allowed us to discover the extent of Ross' and the administration's lies. It also exposes how the Trump administration is abusing the judicial system, much the same way the GOP has done to ensure gerrymandered districts and roll back Obama-era executive orders and policies.

So far, the Trump administration has gone to the courts twelve times over the last 11 weeks in order to delay or end the NY Attorney General's case challenging the decision. It won a brief reprieve when the Supreme Court overturned a lower court decision and ruled that Ross himself was exempt from being deposed in that case, even after the evidence that he had lied to Congress had surfaced. In that decision, both Gorsuch and Thomas seemed to indicate skepticism toward NY lawsuit in its entirety, indicating their belief it is a disruption and encroachment to executive power.

More remarkable, however, is the tactic that the administration has taken in fighting this case. They have abandoned the norm of letting decisions percolate their way through the judiciary via the appeals process. At present, they currently have the ongoing case in federal district court, an appeal in the 2nd circuit, and an appeal to the Supreme Court. The appeal to the Supreme Court was especially peculiar because it involved the discovery process in the district court case which has already been completed.

Even more unusual, however, was the fact the Court accepted that appeal under an expedited procedure. The Court had already ruled on the discovery process when it exempted Ross from a deposition and already denied a similar motion from the administration. By accepting this latest appeal, it appears that Court is bypassing the Court of Appeals and taking the case directly from the district court, presumably assuming the government will lose the case. And now that the Supreme Court has decided to hear their appeal, the government is now asking the district court to delay its decision until the Supreme Court has ruled. That ruling will not come February or March next year at the very earliest. It is also worth noting that one of the administration officials who was involved in the discussions to pass the citizenship information on to law enforcement is now Justice Alito's clerk.

It appears that the Trump administration is now pursuing a two-track strategy regarding the census question. It is desperately venue-shopping in order to get a decision it is looking for, taking the unprecedented step of bringing the case to all levels of the federal judiciary at the same time. If it wins in one of those venues, it will immediately drop its other concurrent appeals elsewhere and then slow-walk the appeals from the plaintiffs. That leads to the second part of the strategy, similar to the GOP's successful efforts to extend their illegal gerrymanders for this entire decade, which is to try and delay a final court decision until the process to include the citizenship question is far enough along that it is unreasonable to be changed in time for its implementation in 2020.

The whole process has revealed the full gamut of Trump administration abuses. The policy itself is originally discriminatory in its intent and probably violates the law. The administration creates a false rationale for its actions in order to hide its discriminatory intent and contemplates using a bogus national security argument to overrule existing law. Its officials lie under oath to Congress and the American people about what has occurred. When caught, the administration abuses the judicial system, simultaneously lodging cases at every level of the federal judiciary in a desperate attempt to find a friendly court in an attempt to end the legal challenge to the policy or delay any decision until the policy has largely been implemented. And, in a final twist, one of the architects of the arguably illegal policy is an important part of the body that will be the final arbiter in the case.

GOP Undermines Democracy In Possible Prelude To 2020

The Republican assault on our democracy has been an ongoing affair on multiple fronts. From extreme partisan gerrymandering to massive voter suppression reminiscent of the days of Jim Crow, Republicans have leveraged these tactics to continually win elections. But, in these last two election cycles, Republicans have added a new dimension.

In 2016, Trump, expecting defeat, continually threatened to defy the election results, claiming the vote would be rigged. In a typical Trumpism, he declared, "I will totally accept the results of this great and historic presidential election — if I win". Even in victory, Trump falsely claimed that millions of "illegals" voted in the election and provided Clinton with her margin of victory.

Also in 2016, in North Carolina, Democrat Roy Cooper barely won election against incumbent Pat McCrory. Cooper's win broke the Republican stranglehold on all three branches of the state's government. The Republican-controlled legislature's response to the results of that election were to attempt to strip the governor of important powers.

Last year, Roy Moore refused to concede even after Doug Jones was certified the winner in the Alabama Senate race. At that time, Moore stated, "Election fraud experts across the country have agreed that this was a fraudulent election". And to this day, Moore has still not conceded.

Earlier this year, the Pennsylvania Supreme Court ruled the state's congressional districts an illegal gerrymander that violated the state's constitution. The Republican-controlled legislature responded by attempting to impeach every member of the Court who voted for that decision.

And, now, after the elections earlier this month, Republican across the board are engaging in these similar strategies. As their election day leads began to slip away as all of California's mail-in ballots were counted, Mimi Walters and Young Kim both declared that the reason the opposition Democrat was gaining votes was due to vote tampering. Neither of them presented a shred of evidence to support this charge. In Arizona, Republican county parties sued to stop counting the remaining mail-in ballots as Martha McSally's lead dwindled away. At least they had a basis for their suit, claiming there were no consistent standards within the state for verifying signatures on those ballots. That claim, however, was denied by the courts.

In Florida, Rick Scott was accusing Democrats of fabricating votes in order to steal the election even before all the votes had been counted. He was supported in that charge by Marco Rubio and Donald Trump. Scott, with the help of Attorney General Pam Bondi, even attempted to get Florida law enforcement officials to investigate their claims of fraud. None of them presented a shred of evidence to support that charge.

In Georgia, Brian Kemp  has spent the prior two years purging voters, challenging voter registrations, closing polling locations, not providing enough voting machines for heavily populated locations, and rejecting absentee ballots. Most of these actions were directed at restricting Democratic votes. Yet, even as he presided over his own election for Governor as Secretary of State, his campaign was pressuring Stacey Abrams to concede before all the votes were counted. At the same time, Trump was again talking about Democratic voter fraud in the state, again without a shred of evidence.

In Maine, which just instituted ranked-choice voting where second choice ballots get counted if no candidate gets above 50% of the vote, the GOP representative sued to stop that process, claiming that he was the victor "fair and square" because he won more votes initially, although not enough to give him more than the 50% required.

Now, in Wisconsin, the extremely gerrymandered Republican-controlled legislature is taking a page out of North Carolina's book from 2016 by passing laws in the lame-duck session that will limit the powers of the new, incoming Democratic governor. The lame-duck session is actually an emergency session that was initially called to deal solely with passing a tax package for Kimberly-Clark in order to save 500 jobs in the state. Now, however, Assembly Speaker Robin Vos is open to the idea of taking some action, currently undefined, to limit the new Governor's power.

As Brendan Nyhan presciently writes, "The peaceful transfer of power is the core of democracy. The losing side stripping powers from the winning side undermines that compact". Attacking the legitimacy of the electoral process and attempting to strip powers from elections winners before they can even take office attacks on that peaceful transfer of power, however, has become the hallmark of the Trump Republican party.

Of course, all these GOP attacks on democracy, and especially the President's, appear to be a dry-run for the 2020 election. Rick Hasen even fears that Trump could "refuse to concede the 2020 presidential election if he is ahead in the count on election night and then ballot counts inevitably shift toward Democrats as the counting continues".

Unfortunately, Hasen, who usually knows better, descends into both-siderism when he criticizes Abrams for refusing to acknowledge Kemp as the "legitimate" winner of the Georgia election. Hasen believes that such an approach actually feeds into the Republican and Trump theme of fraudulent elections. The New York Times chimed in on that theme as well, equating Democrats' legitimate concerns about suppression and counting all the votes with Republicans' unfounded and unsubstantiated claims of voter fraud.

That kind of reporting actually does Trump's and the Republicans' work for them, falling into the trap outlined by Karl Rove and used by the GOP for nearly two decades now. The tactic is to baselessly accuse the opponent of the activity you are actually engaging in and then counting on the media to report it as a "both sides do it" kind of story, allowing you to continue to get away with the activity you're already engaged in.

There is only one party that is attacking what most people in this country would understand as the democratic process, continually trying to change the rules of the game while it is being played or even afterward. There is only one party that continually cries fraud without evidence whenever a race is close or has been lost. There is only one party who is increasingly relying on gaming the electoral system in order to win elections. Equating Democratic complaints of real issues with the electoral process with those kind of tactics not only will embolden Republican shenanigans in 2020 but further undermines our democracy.

Astronomy Adventure - Saturn Nebula

This little blue fuzzball is the Saturn Nebula (NGC 7009) in the constellation Aquarius.

The Saturn Nebula is a planetary nebula and is so-called because its unusual structure resembles Saturn with its rings. You can see a better photo that illustrates those features here.


Scope: Starblast 4.5; tracking on
Magnification: ~200x
Camera: iPhone6 using NightCap Pro; ISO 8000; 5 second exposure;

Natural Weekends - West Rock State Park

Before the snow came, I managed to get out to West Rock State Park in Hamden, Connecticut for a few fall photos:

Astronomy Adventure - Crater Clavius Region Of The Moon

Here is the southern polar region of the Moon. Tycho is the crater with the central peak near the bottom of the photo. Crater Clavius is the large crater in the middle with the three craters in its floor descending in size towards its middle. Crater Gruemberger is above Clavius with the smaller crater Cysatus to its immediate left. The crater with the central peak above them is Moretus and above that with the brightly lit far crater wall is Short.

Technical details:

Scope: Starblast 4.5; tracking on

Magnification: ~200x

Camera: iPhone6 using NightCap Pro; Low ISO

Natural Weekends - Fall To Winter

A freak November snowstorm brought an early end to fall...

Blue Wave Obscures Successful GOP Gerrymanders

The ever-increasing blue wave from last Tuesday's midterms is a remarkable rebuke to Trumpism and a necessary victory for Democrats and the country. Because of the enormity of that victory, however, it is easy to overlook just how brutal some of the existing extreme gerrymanders were for Democrats, both congressionally and statewide.

In Michigan, Democrats managed to flip all three of the major statewide offices and split the state's 14  US House seats with 50.7% of the statewide vote, a pickup of two seats. But, remarkably, despite apparently once again getting more votes than Republicans, Democrats remained a clear minority in the Michigan House and Senate. Democrats ended up with a 58-52 deficit in the House and a 22-16 one in the Senate, and that's after pickup up five seats in both chambers. This is the legacy of Republican gerrymandering in 2011 that precisely targeted Democrats with the intention of ensuring GOP legislative dominance for the rest of the decade. Thankfully, Michigan also passed a ballot initiative that will put redistricting after the 2020 census in the hands of an independent commission.

A similar situation exists in Wisconsin. Democrats won four statewide races and managed to unseat the Koch Brothers puppet, Governor Scott Walker. Yet, despite an enormous Democratic surge, Republicans managed to expand their majority in the state Senate and maintain their enormous 63-36 advantage in Wisconsin House. Back in 2012, Democrats actually won 53% of the vote but won only 40% of the seats in that chamber. That result has not changed dramatically since then, largely because of the post-2010 gerrymander put in place by Republicans.

It's even worse in North Carolina. There, Democrats once again won the majority of votes across the state for the US House of Representatives, but they won only three of the thirteen seats available. And, as in Wisconsin, despite that enormous Democratic turnout that gave Democrats the majority of the votes, Republicans still maintained firm control of both houses of the state legislature, with an eleven vote advantage in the House and an eight vote advantage in the Senate. Democrats did manage to break the Republicans' supermajority in both chambers and won a 5-2 majority on the state Supreme Court by adding a voting rights advocate.

Probably one of the bigger disappointments of the night for Democrats was Ohio. Richard Cordray went down to defeat to the ancient Mike Dewine and Democrats flipped no House seats, leading to the conclusion that the state was slipping away from Democrats.  The reality is that Republicans barely got more than 50% of the votes for the US House across the state but won 12 of the 16 seats available. Even more remarkably, however, Republicans managed to maintain their majority in the Ohio Senate and 11 of 17 seats with just 48% of the vote. In the Ohio House, Republicans won 52% of the vote but won 62 of the 99 seats. Again, this is the result of an extreme 2011 gerrymander. The congressional gerrymander is being challenged in the courts and there will be new rules in place for redrawing state election districts in 2021 that may mitigate the Republican advantage.

As an example of how much a fair and impartial redistricting plan would change the political landscape in these states, take a look at Pennsylvania. In 2016, Democrats won 48% of the statewide vote for the US House, but only won 27% of the available seats. Before the 2018 election, the state Supreme Court ruled that the congressional districts were unconstitutionally gerrymandered and unilaterally drew fairer districts after the legislature could not provide their own alternative. With those new maps in place for 2018, Democrats won 53% of the vote and ended up with exactly half of the 18 House seats. The GOP gerrymander, however, remained in place for state elections. There, again, Democrats won a majority of the votes statewide for both houses of the legislature but Republicans still maintained their majorities, although by slimmer margins, in the House and Senate.

Pennsylvania is one of the rare cases where judicial intervention has been effective, primarily because of the uniqueness of the state's constitution that requires "free and equal" elections. In states like North Carolina and Texas, gerrymanders have been ruled unconstitutional by federal courts due to racial bias but those states have largely managed to keep those districts in place for most of this decade either by redrawing them with slight modifications in a process that never mentions race, or by constantly appealing those decisions up the appellate court ladder and drawing them out long enough so that new maps could not be in place for the next election.

In 2017, Democrats trounced Republicans in Virginia, winning the statewide vote by 11%, yet they still could not take control of the House of Delegates, losing that chance when the coin flip that decided a race that ended in a tie provided the Republicans with the final, swing seat. The gerrymander that created this situation was additionally ruled unconstitutional on racial grounds, requiring the maps to be redrawn for the next round of state elections in 2019. That job is currently in the hands of a special master appointed by the federal district court.

But now Virginia Republicans are once again trying to use the gambit of an ongoing court case in an attempt to once again delay any change to the existing, illegal, gerrymandered maps. Virginia Republicans have appealed the decision to redraw the maps to the Supreme Court and the Court has agreed to hear the case. Republicans are now openly contemplating asking the Court to delay the redistricting until their case is heard in a clear attempt to prevent them from being in place for next fall's elections.

Democrats are not entirely blameless on this issue either. Maryland is a prime example of a partisan Democratic gerrymander. But, because of the make-up of the party and the packed nature of its voters, Democratic gerrymanders are a lot harder to create.

With the election of Democratic governors and secretaries of state, some of these egregious gerrymanders will not exist after 2020, assuming the Trump administration doesn't corrupt the census. But, as North Carolina and Ohio illustrate, the blue wave in the House might have become a tsunami with potentially another half dozen seats for the Democrats under fairly drawn maps and the lopsided GOP majorities in these red state legislatures would not exist.

Is Mike Pence Making His Move?

As many have noted, Trump seems thoroughly disinterested in even performing the basics of the job as President since the midterm shellacking by Democrats. Reports are that he has become even more isolated and angry, perhaps driven by having to finally confront a reality different from his own version of it.

Trump's anger may be fueled by worry about what will happen to himself and his family now that Democrats have subpoena power in the House. In addition, it is clear that the Mueller investigation is closing in, perhaps more imminently on Don Jr. than Trump himself right now, but closing in nonetheless. So too are the other investigations into the apparent fraud at the Trump Foundation and the conspiracy to silence women before the election that are currently being pursued in New York, with the latter probably making his domestic life more difficult.

Moreover, the protection racket that Trump has surrounded himself with over the years has taken some enormous hits. Michael Cohen has left the fold and is apparently singing, as are principals with the National Enquirer. Manafort my still be resolute, but Gates, who probably knows everything Manafort knew, is talking. Roger Stone's operation is increasingly under pressure and there are signs that some in that camp are beginning to fold. There even seems to be a small but growing concern within the Federalist Society that Trump's shredding of the rule of law has gone too far.

As bad as all that is, there are little hints that the power players in the Republican party may be thinking they have gotten as much out of Trump as they could get. The legislative agenda is dead. They got massacred in the suburbs and only picked up a maximum of two Senate seats in what was the one of most friendly maps in history in last week's midterms. The next two years portend investigations in multiple areas that will expose massive corruption not only with Trump and his family personally as well within his administration but also with various businesses that have been beneficiaries of that corruption. Those businesses are significant sectors of the party's donor class.

Additionally, the conservative wing of the party, which is now about all that's left, may be happy with the last two years of accomplishment but it has never really trusted Trump. With the Democrats now having power in the House, there is a genuine fear that Trump will compromise with the Democrats and squeeze the Republicans in the Senate in order to get a legislative win for himself for 2020. That was surely compounded by Trump's abandonment of House Republicans before the election and his willingness to consider an infrastructure plan after it.

The party doesn't need Trump to continue to eliminate regulation and pack the courts with Federalist Society hacks, which is probably about all that can be accomplished in the next two years unless Trump capitulates to Democrats. In fact, there is already someone itching to take that role.

Even in just the few days since the midterms, Mike Pence is using Trump's disengagement to become a far more forceful figure than we've seen before. The Vice President has been active meeting foreign leaders over the last two years but he is now taking that role to a higher level. Pence will be filling in for Trump at both the APEC, ASEAN, and East Asia summits in Asia, the three most important meetings for that region. Pence made the most forceful statement to date from a US official condemning the state-sanctioned violence against the Rohingya minority in Myanmar directly to Aung San Suu Kyi. I doubt that is something we would have heard from Trump, considering his infatuation with authoritarian regimes and inherent racism.

Pence has often strayed off the Trump reservation in order to advance his own interests but has always managed to stay in Trump's good graces. It is an open secret that Pence and his team have expressed the desire to be prepared for the 2020 election in case Trump did not survive and it appears that Pence has set up his own political operation to prepare for that potentiality. There are some who are already talking like that is a possibility. Jan Brewer, former Arizona governor, recently talked about Pence saying, "We really, really appreciate him leading our party in that respect. His mission is maybe a little bit different than the president, and he is not under attack 24/7 like the president is." That sounds remarkably like an endorsement.

Back in early September, there was an anonymous op-ed in the NY Times that declared there were people within the Trump administration that were working to "thwart parts of his agenda and his worst inclinations". At least some in the White House believed that the source of that op-ed was the Vice President's office. Now the latest rumor is that Chief of Staff John Kelly is once again headed out the door and one of the most mentioned replacements is none other than Pence's current Chief of Staff, Nick Ayers.

With Trump seemingly focused on simply surviving and reportedly also suffering from serious mental deterioration, it appears that Pence will more and more become the de-facto, behind the scenes leader of this administration. And if things deteriorate so badly that Republicans actually turn on Trump and impeach him, Pence will then be well-prepared to take over in a relatively smooth transition. Unfortunately, the country will have only swapped an autocrat for a theocrat.