Sunday, September 30, 2018
Saturday, September 29, 2018
Friday, September 28, 2018
Jeff Flake's Support Likely Means Kavanaugh Will Be Confirmed
It is no surprise that Jeff Flake would vote to send Kavanaugh's nomination out of the Judiciary Committee if only to guarantee a vote by the full Senate. But his stated intention to vote for Kavanaugh there as well indicates that Kavanaugh will be confirmed. If Collins and Murkowski were both going to vote no to Kavanaugh, then I would have expected Flake to join them to at least give them some cover, especially considering he really has nothing to lose as he is retiring. His support of Kavanaugh, then, indicates that Murkowski and/or Collins will also vote to seat Kavanaugh.
With the reality that Kavanaugh will be seated, I then expect Joe Manchin to take the easy vote to join Flake and Murkowski/Collins in order to provide some "bipartisan" sheen to the proceedings and score some points with Trump. Harry Reid always said that Manchin was there for him on every vote he really needed, but went his own way when he wasn't. This will be one of those case where Manchin's vote really means nothing other than protecting himself in West Virginia. It wouldn't be surprising to see at least one other red-state Democrat make the same decision.
This, rightly, will infuriate the Democratic base but we really need to focus that righteous anger where it should be appropriately directed, at the Republicans who will put a man on the Supreme Court who has, at minimum and just like their President, shown he does not have the temperament for the job and is simply just a partisan hack using a deeply flawed and partisan process. It will also mean that two of the nine justice will now be credibly accused sexual harassers/abusers and four of the nine will have been appointed by a President who did not initially win the majority of the vote.
The Supreme Court has been broken for some time. Confirming Kavanaugh will only make that issue strikingly clear to all. As Yglesias points out, "In Bush v Gore, Citizens United, Shelby County, throwing out Medicaid expansion, etc the 21st Century SCOTUS has mostly been an accelerant of democratic decline rather than a safeguard and the sooner people realize that the better." While the left continued to believe in some kind of mythical independent judiciary and Supreme Court, conservative have long recognized the importance of the judiciary, and the Court in particular, and worked to fill it with right-wing ideologues.
Kavanaugh's confirmation will be a prime example of GOP's dominance politics and will presage the ending or curtailing of the Mueller investigation after the midterms as well as other potentially damaging attacks on our democracy. That is especially true if the Democrats win the House, because eliminating the only independent investigation of Russian hacking of our election will allow Trump and the GOP to turn the expected House investigation into just another partisan attack, just like they have done with Kavanaugh and Dr. Ford.
Any full investigation of the claims against Kavanaugh by a Democratic House, which will absolutely be required, will be similarly attacked. And Republicans know that, even if the House finds substantial evidence that Kavanaugh has lied beyond what we already know, and I expect they will, the chances that he will be convicted of impeachment in the Senate are virtually nil. But Republicans have destroyed any remaining shred of confidence that Americans have in the Court, not that they care as long as it further cements their power.
Although this is a subject for a separate post entirely, it is time for Democrats to think about ways to either radically restructure our democratic processes to more full represent the will of the majority or, as a last resort, restructuring our Union entirely to accomplish something similar.
There is still time between now and the full Senate vote to influence the outcome and we must fight to the bitter end. Here are the relevant phone numbers: Susan Collins: 202-224-2523; Lisa Murkowski 202-224-6665. Call. And then vote in November.
With the reality that Kavanaugh will be seated, I then expect Joe Manchin to take the easy vote to join Flake and Murkowski/Collins in order to provide some "bipartisan" sheen to the proceedings and score some points with Trump. Harry Reid always said that Manchin was there for him on every vote he really needed, but went his own way when he wasn't. This will be one of those case where Manchin's vote really means nothing other than protecting himself in West Virginia. It wouldn't be surprising to see at least one other red-state Democrat make the same decision.
This, rightly, will infuriate the Democratic base but we really need to focus that righteous anger where it should be appropriately directed, at the Republicans who will put a man on the Supreme Court who has, at minimum and just like their President, shown he does not have the temperament for the job and is simply just a partisan hack using a deeply flawed and partisan process. It will also mean that two of the nine justice will now be credibly accused sexual harassers/abusers and four of the nine will have been appointed by a President who did not initially win the majority of the vote.
The Supreme Court has been broken for some time. Confirming Kavanaugh will only make that issue strikingly clear to all. As Yglesias points out, "In Bush v Gore, Citizens United, Shelby County, throwing out Medicaid expansion, etc the 21st Century SCOTUS has mostly been an accelerant of democratic decline rather than a safeguard and the sooner people realize that the better." While the left continued to believe in some kind of mythical independent judiciary and Supreme Court, conservative have long recognized the importance of the judiciary, and the Court in particular, and worked to fill it with right-wing ideologues.
Kavanaugh's confirmation will be a prime example of GOP's dominance politics and will presage the ending or curtailing of the Mueller investigation after the midterms as well as other potentially damaging attacks on our democracy. That is especially true if the Democrats win the House, because eliminating the only independent investigation of Russian hacking of our election will allow Trump and the GOP to turn the expected House investigation into just another partisan attack, just like they have done with Kavanaugh and Dr. Ford.
Any full investigation of the claims against Kavanaugh by a Democratic House, which will absolutely be required, will be similarly attacked. And Republicans know that, even if the House finds substantial evidence that Kavanaugh has lied beyond what we already know, and I expect they will, the chances that he will be convicted of impeachment in the Senate are virtually nil. But Republicans have destroyed any remaining shred of confidence that Americans have in the Court, not that they care as long as it further cements their power.
Although this is a subject for a separate post entirely, it is time for Democrats to think about ways to either radically restructure our democratic processes to more full represent the will of the majority or, as a last resort, restructuring our Union entirely to accomplish something similar.
There is still time between now and the full Senate vote to influence the outcome and we must fight to the bitter end. Here are the relevant phone numbers: Susan Collins: 202-224-2523; Lisa Murkowski 202-224-6665. Call. And then vote in November.
Thursday, September 27, 2018
Thoughts On Today's Hearings
I'll just post some quick thoughts on today's emotional hearing that the GOP turned into another partisan war. The situation remains fluid but it appears the Republicans are still intent on "plowing through" with this nomination.
First, the whole procedure was an absolute mess. Leaving only five minutes for each questioner before moving on to the next questioner from the other party allowed for no questioner to actually explore certain points through a series of questions. Unfortunately, that was probably by Republican design.
I knew beforehand that Dr. Ford would be a credible witness but she turned out to be one of the most compelling and sympathetic witnesses possible. Her demeanor and testimony bore that out.
The decision to use a prosecutor in order to protect the eleven, primarily older, white men from the embarrassment of asking questions of a victim of sexual assault turned out to be an enormous mistake. Her questions seemed to be more aimed at determining the truth of the accusations and she often ended up to seemingly help Dr. Ford with her inquiries. In addition, her attempts to question Dr. Ford on her political views and activities long after the alleged attack was unseemly as these questions clearly should have been asked by the Republican members, highlighting their incredible cowardice. Her attempts to poke holes in Dr. Ford's testimony largely failed and she ended her questioning by making the Democrats point for them, namely stating that a hearing like this clearly was not the optimal way to determine the truth of her memories.
To be honest, Kavanaugh's testimony was a shock. Having been a squirrely hedger for this entire process, Kavanaugh came out with an angry, partisan 45 minute diatribe that included wild claims of a vast Democratic and left-wing conspiracy to block his nomination. That explosion was remarkable on two levels. First, it exploded the myth that Kavanaugh had tried to create about his choirboy image and his anger only highlighted the capacity for abusive and aggressive behavior that Dr. Ford alleges. As Will Stancil wrote sarcastically, "totally wouldn't peg this guy for a belligerent drunk." That was only reinforced when Kavanaugh started badgering Amy Klobuchar if she had ever blacked out after drinking. The man who continually talks about his lifelong respect for women actually had to publicly apologize to Klobuchar after the next break.
Secondly, Kavanaugh's partisan outburst brings into question whether has really has the temperament to not just be a Supreme Court judge but still sit on the Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia. As Ron Brownstein wrote, "It's reasonable to ask how does #Kavanaugh continue serving as a federal judge, much less on #SCOTUS after delivering such an openly partisan attack and identifying so unequivocally as an opponent of the Dem Party? He has validated those who see him as a GOP operative in a robe."
The problems with Kavanaugh's defense are multiple. His reference to his extensive calendar as exculpatory actually ignores a point that the GOP's prosecutor crept up to but never concluded. On July 1, Kavanaugh's calendar shows him going to a friend's house for "skis" with two of the people that Dr. Ford alleges were there when she was attacked. Kavanaugh's petty lies in other areas also bring into question his overall credibility. His answers about what "boofed" and "devil's triangle" mean directly contradict what many of his peers at Georgetown Prep and most others understood them to reference. His answer about being a "Renate alumnius" was similarly unbelievable. In addition, his final answer to Kamala Harris, that he had not watched Dr. Ford's testimony is also contradicted by reporting from the Washington Post. Add this to his prior lies about Manny Miranda and his work for Bush judicial nominees that highlight his lack of credibility.
But by far the biggest problem for Kavanaugh his continual refusal to ask for an FBI investigation that would clear his name. The contradiction in his answers to that question ended up being echoed by the GOP Senators. He claims that the FBI has already investigated him six previous times but, at the same time, claims that a new FBI investigation would be useless because they reach no conclusions. According to Kavanaugh and the GOP, the FBI background checks are both exculpatory and useless at the same time.
Republican Senators finally managed to find their own voice when Kavanaugh began to testify. The essential firing of their own female prosecutor in the middle of the hearing in order to launch a bomb-throwing partisan attack was yet another example of how these largely older white men continually silence women. Not only that, they created a situation where their hand-picked questioner who specializes in prosecuting sex crimes interrogated the victim but could barely ask a question of the alleged perpetrator, an odd scenario to say the least. In addition, most of those Senators never directed a question to Kavanaugh, but instead launched into partisan speechifying.
The Republicans' outburst of angry partisanship in a list ditch attempt to save the nomination was hardly unexpected as they never had any intention to "discover" the truth in this hearing. They were simply going to let Dr. Ford speak, ignore anything she said, and then vote for Kavanaugh as quickly as possible before even more credible accusation surfaced. And that is what they apparently still intend to do. Dominance politics is all Republicans have left.
First, the whole procedure was an absolute mess. Leaving only five minutes for each questioner before moving on to the next questioner from the other party allowed for no questioner to actually explore certain points through a series of questions. Unfortunately, that was probably by Republican design.
I knew beforehand that Dr. Ford would be a credible witness but she turned out to be one of the most compelling and sympathetic witnesses possible. Her demeanor and testimony bore that out.
The decision to use a prosecutor in order to protect the eleven, primarily older, white men from the embarrassment of asking questions of a victim of sexual assault turned out to be an enormous mistake. Her questions seemed to be more aimed at determining the truth of the accusations and she often ended up to seemingly help Dr. Ford with her inquiries. In addition, her attempts to question Dr. Ford on her political views and activities long after the alleged attack was unseemly as these questions clearly should have been asked by the Republican members, highlighting their incredible cowardice. Her attempts to poke holes in Dr. Ford's testimony largely failed and she ended her questioning by making the Democrats point for them, namely stating that a hearing like this clearly was not the optimal way to determine the truth of her memories.
To be honest, Kavanaugh's testimony was a shock. Having been a squirrely hedger for this entire process, Kavanaugh came out with an angry, partisan 45 minute diatribe that included wild claims of a vast Democratic and left-wing conspiracy to block his nomination. That explosion was remarkable on two levels. First, it exploded the myth that Kavanaugh had tried to create about his choirboy image and his anger only highlighted the capacity for abusive and aggressive behavior that Dr. Ford alleges. As Will Stancil wrote sarcastically, "totally wouldn't peg this guy for a belligerent drunk." That was only reinforced when Kavanaugh started badgering Amy Klobuchar if she had ever blacked out after drinking. The man who continually talks about his lifelong respect for women actually had to publicly apologize to Klobuchar after the next break.
Secondly, Kavanaugh's partisan outburst brings into question whether has really has the temperament to not just be a Supreme Court judge but still sit on the Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia. As Ron Brownstein wrote, "It's reasonable to ask how does #Kavanaugh continue serving as a federal judge, much less on #SCOTUS after delivering such an openly partisan attack and identifying so unequivocally as an opponent of the Dem Party? He has validated those who see him as a GOP operative in a robe."
The problems with Kavanaugh's defense are multiple. His reference to his extensive calendar as exculpatory actually ignores a point that the GOP's prosecutor crept up to but never concluded. On July 1, Kavanaugh's calendar shows him going to a friend's house for "skis" with two of the people that Dr. Ford alleges were there when she was attacked. Kavanaugh's petty lies in other areas also bring into question his overall credibility. His answers about what "boofed" and "devil's triangle" mean directly contradict what many of his peers at Georgetown Prep and most others understood them to reference. His answer about being a "Renate alumnius" was similarly unbelievable. In addition, his final answer to Kamala Harris, that he had not watched Dr. Ford's testimony is also contradicted by reporting from the Washington Post. Add this to his prior lies about Manny Miranda and his work for Bush judicial nominees that highlight his lack of credibility.
But by far the biggest problem for Kavanaugh his continual refusal to ask for an FBI investigation that would clear his name. The contradiction in his answers to that question ended up being echoed by the GOP Senators. He claims that the FBI has already investigated him six previous times but, at the same time, claims that a new FBI investigation would be useless because they reach no conclusions. According to Kavanaugh and the GOP, the FBI background checks are both exculpatory and useless at the same time.
Republican Senators finally managed to find their own voice when Kavanaugh began to testify. The essential firing of their own female prosecutor in the middle of the hearing in order to launch a bomb-throwing partisan attack was yet another example of how these largely older white men continually silence women. Not only that, they created a situation where their hand-picked questioner who specializes in prosecuting sex crimes interrogated the victim but could barely ask a question of the alleged perpetrator, an odd scenario to say the least. In addition, most of those Senators never directed a question to Kavanaugh, but instead launched into partisan speechifying.
The Republicans' outburst of angry partisanship in a list ditch attempt to save the nomination was hardly unexpected as they never had any intention to "discover" the truth in this hearing. They were simply going to let Dr. Ford speak, ignore anything she said, and then vote for Kavanaugh as quickly as possible before even more credible accusation surfaced. And that is what they apparently still intend to do. Dominance politics is all Republicans have left.
Protecting The President
As we wait to see the fallout from the sham Kavanaugh hearing today, it must be noted what the despicable Orrin Hatch is doing in order to protect the President from the rule of law. Hatch has filed an amicus brief in the case of Gamble v. United States in support of a man who is challenging the 150 year old dual-sovereignty exception to the Fifth Amendment's protection from double-jeopardy. That exception allows someone to be charged for the same crime by both state and federal governments.
In the specific case, a man who had a prior conviction that meant he could not legally own a firearm was subsequently stopped for a traffic violation where police found a gun. The man was subsequently convicted by both federal and state prosecutors with illegal possession of a firearm which resulted in an extended sentence. The man is claiming that the convictions in both federal and state court for the same offence amounts to a violation of the Fifth Amendments double-jeopardy law which prohibits being prosecuted for the same crime twice.
On the face of it, that seems like a reasonable argument and there is no doubt that his has become a real issue as the number of federal felonies has grown exponentially in the age of "law and order" and the war on drugs. As Hatch writes, "The extensive federalization of criminal law has rendered ineffective the federalist underpinnings of the dual sovereignty doctrine. And its persistence impairs full realization of the Double Jeopardy Clause’s liberty protections." In fact, there are a number of states which have explicitly voided the dual-sovereignty exception by not allowing the state to bring the same charges after a federal prosecution. Unfortunately for the man in this case, he was arrested and convicted in Alabama which does not provide that extended protection.
The problem, of course, is that we live in Trump world. Overturning the dual-sovereignty exception at this point would effectively allow Trump to pardon all those involved and convicted in the Russia investigation and its offshoots without having to worry whether those individuals could then be charged and convicted again in state court. In fact, most observers believe that Mueller is specifically protecting his investigation from the possibility of pardons by ensuring that states could pick up those prosecutions. That plan would be unraveled if Gamble wins this case.
This case is further complicated by the fact that it will be heard by the Supreme Court in this upcoming term. It is clear that part of the reason that Kavanaugh was selected was his clear preference for unfettered presidential power. While Kavanaugh's potential views on the case are unknown, that preference may also indicate that he would be willing to overturn the dual-sovereignty exception. But Hatch's late interest in this case combined with the seeming determination to ram through Kavanaugh's confirmation at all cost raises real questions. In addition, it seems to be another example of the Republican party making extraordinary efforts to protect Trump. And it makes one wonder if they are actually also protecting themselves.
In the specific case, a man who had a prior conviction that meant he could not legally own a firearm was subsequently stopped for a traffic violation where police found a gun. The man was subsequently convicted by both federal and state prosecutors with illegal possession of a firearm which resulted in an extended sentence. The man is claiming that the convictions in both federal and state court for the same offence amounts to a violation of the Fifth Amendments double-jeopardy law which prohibits being prosecuted for the same crime twice.
On the face of it, that seems like a reasonable argument and there is no doubt that his has become a real issue as the number of federal felonies has grown exponentially in the age of "law and order" and the war on drugs. As Hatch writes, "The extensive federalization of criminal law has rendered ineffective the federalist underpinnings of the dual sovereignty doctrine. And its persistence impairs full realization of the Double Jeopardy Clause’s liberty protections." In fact, there are a number of states which have explicitly voided the dual-sovereignty exception by not allowing the state to bring the same charges after a federal prosecution. Unfortunately for the man in this case, he was arrested and convicted in Alabama which does not provide that extended protection.
The problem, of course, is that we live in Trump world. Overturning the dual-sovereignty exception at this point would effectively allow Trump to pardon all those involved and convicted in the Russia investigation and its offshoots without having to worry whether those individuals could then be charged and convicted again in state court. In fact, most observers believe that Mueller is specifically protecting his investigation from the possibility of pardons by ensuring that states could pick up those prosecutions. That plan would be unraveled if Gamble wins this case.
This case is further complicated by the fact that it will be heard by the Supreme Court in this upcoming term. It is clear that part of the reason that Kavanaugh was selected was his clear preference for unfettered presidential power. While Kavanaugh's potential views on the case are unknown, that preference may also indicate that he would be willing to overturn the dual-sovereignty exception. But Hatch's late interest in this case combined with the seeming determination to ram through Kavanaugh's confirmation at all cost raises real questions. In addition, it seems to be another example of the Republican party making extraordinary efforts to protect Trump. And it makes one wonder if they are actually also protecting themselves.
Wednesday, September 26, 2018
Kavanaugh Confirmation Is Simply GOP Dominance Politics
The GOP's decision to "plow forward" with the Brett Kavanaugh nomination is one of the clearest examples of what Josh Marshall has labeled "dominance politics" that has become the core of the modern Republican party. Dominance politics is built on "a series of symbols and actions that mark the dominating from the dominated." To paraphrase Bill Kristol in a comment he made the other day, conservative politics seems to be less concerned with simply winning on certain issues than it is obsessed with utterly destroying its opponents. Trump is, of course, the epitome of this brand of politics.
Despite the increasing number of allegations of sexual misconduct by Kavanaugh and the expanding nature of his lies, maintaining this choirboy image of his youth that is entirely contradicted by the facts and the documentary evidence, such as his yearbook, Republicans are still determined to essentially hold a hearing in the Judiciary Committee and then vote to send his nomination to the floor. Trump, McConnell, and others are denigrating his accusers, accusing them of fabrications or being confused, at the same time they are proclaiming that they want to hear what they say under oath.
McConnell recently told his conservative colleagues at the Values Voters conference that Kavanaugh will be confirmed and yesterday reiterated that he was "confident we’re going to win" and believed "he’ll be confirmed". Both statements at least appear to indicate that he has already pre-judged the outcome of the Thursday hearing and the vote in the Judiciary Committee. The refusal to provide for an independent investigation as well as the refusal to hear from the second Kavanaugh accuser highlights what a sham this hearing really will be, as does bringing in a prosecutor to ask questions for the Republican men on the committee after denying such an investigation.. In addition, when made aware of a credible second allegation against Kavanaugh, the Republicans not only tried to speed up the process but now also refuse to even talk to her lawyer. Finally, the Committee has announced that the vote on moving his confirmation will potentially happen on Friday morning, ensuring that the lies Kavanaugh tells on Thursday will not be thoroughly fact-checked and broadcast before the vote.
The attitude from the Republican party seems to be that we don't care how many accusers come forward; we don't care to have a real investigation; we don't care that most people think he is another sexual predator; we don't care that a majority of Americans don't think he should be on the Court; we don't care that it's clear Kavanaugh is a serial liar; we are going to ram this nomination through and you can't stop us. It's dominance politics at its most extreme.
Kavanaugh himself has taken a similar approach. His protestations of his choirboy youth, always caring about the dignity of women, is simply belied by the multiple denigrating references to women and the references to binge drinking in his high school yearbook, as well as testimony from those who knew then and at Yale. His clear lies about his knowledge of stolen emails from Democratic Judiciary members is yet another example of the facts clearly refuting his version of reality. And his preening about wanting a "fair process" while denying his accusers the right of an independent investigation indicates the dominance politics he plays.
It's important to remember that Kavanaugh came of age in the early years of dominance politics originally practiced by Newt Gingrich. It's how he ended up as one of the most ultra-aggressive members of Ken Starr's real witch-hunt. It's why he was part of the Brooks Brothers riot that interfered with the legal counting of votes in the Florida recount. It's why he was apparently a willing conspirator in the torture policy of the Bush administration. Dominance politics is all that he knows. Taking the high road and saying that he might not have been a choirboy in his youth but that he never sexually assaulted these women and, as an adult, tried to provide the dignity and respect women deserve would probably have allowed him to get confirmed with at least moderate public support, But, like Trump, he is incapable of doing that because need for dominance has been ingrained.
Jason Chaffetz is a perfect example of just how toxic this brand of politics has become. Chaffetz spent two years haranguing Hillary Clinton about Benghazi! as chairman of the House Oversight and Government Reform Committee. After the Access Hollywood tape came out, Chaffetz distanced himself from Trump and said he was preparing for "years" of investigating the expected Clinton White House. Chaffetz said Clinton was " a target-rich environment. Even before we get to Day One, we’ve got two years’ worth of material already lined up. She has four years of history at the State Department, and it ain’t good."
Of course, when Trump got elected, Chaffetz did nothing to investigate Trump's ethics violations or Michael Flynn's apparent treason. Just six month's into his two year term, Chaffetz abruptly retired and became a Fox News contributor. Chaffetz clearly had no interest in engaging in actual governance. His entire raison d'etre was to destroy Hillary Clinton. When that was no longer an option, he simply took the money and ran. This was dominance politics to the max.
Make no mistake, if Trump and the GOP can ram through the Kavanaugh confirmation, it will only embolden their brand of dominance politics, with the Mueller investigation probably being the next victim. And dominance politics, when practiced by a party with virtually all the political power, largely gained through gerrymandering, voter suppression, and a defective electoral system, very much resembles authoritarianism.
Despite the increasing number of allegations of sexual misconduct by Kavanaugh and the expanding nature of his lies, maintaining this choirboy image of his youth that is entirely contradicted by the facts and the documentary evidence, such as his yearbook, Republicans are still determined to essentially hold a hearing in the Judiciary Committee and then vote to send his nomination to the floor. Trump, McConnell, and others are denigrating his accusers, accusing them of fabrications or being confused, at the same time they are proclaiming that they want to hear what they say under oath.
McConnell recently told his conservative colleagues at the Values Voters conference that Kavanaugh will be confirmed and yesterday reiterated that he was "confident we’re going to win" and believed "he’ll be confirmed". Both statements at least appear to indicate that he has already pre-judged the outcome of the Thursday hearing and the vote in the Judiciary Committee. The refusal to provide for an independent investigation as well as the refusal to hear from the second Kavanaugh accuser highlights what a sham this hearing really will be, as does bringing in a prosecutor to ask questions for the Republican men on the committee after denying such an investigation.. In addition, when made aware of a credible second allegation against Kavanaugh, the Republicans not only tried to speed up the process but now also refuse to even talk to her lawyer. Finally, the Committee has announced that the vote on moving his confirmation will potentially happen on Friday morning, ensuring that the lies Kavanaugh tells on Thursday will not be thoroughly fact-checked and broadcast before the vote.
The attitude from the Republican party seems to be that we don't care how many accusers come forward; we don't care to have a real investigation; we don't care that most people think he is another sexual predator; we don't care that a majority of Americans don't think he should be on the Court; we don't care that it's clear Kavanaugh is a serial liar; we are going to ram this nomination through and you can't stop us. It's dominance politics at its most extreme.
Kavanaugh himself has taken a similar approach. His protestations of his choirboy youth, always caring about the dignity of women, is simply belied by the multiple denigrating references to women and the references to binge drinking in his high school yearbook, as well as testimony from those who knew then and at Yale. His clear lies about his knowledge of stolen emails from Democratic Judiciary members is yet another example of the facts clearly refuting his version of reality. And his preening about wanting a "fair process" while denying his accusers the right of an independent investigation indicates the dominance politics he plays.
It's important to remember that Kavanaugh came of age in the early years of dominance politics originally practiced by Newt Gingrich. It's how he ended up as one of the most ultra-aggressive members of Ken Starr's real witch-hunt. It's why he was part of the Brooks Brothers riot that interfered with the legal counting of votes in the Florida recount. It's why he was apparently a willing conspirator in the torture policy of the Bush administration. Dominance politics is all that he knows. Taking the high road and saying that he might not have been a choirboy in his youth but that he never sexually assaulted these women and, as an adult, tried to provide the dignity and respect women deserve would probably have allowed him to get confirmed with at least moderate public support, But, like Trump, he is incapable of doing that because need for dominance has been ingrained.
Jason Chaffetz is a perfect example of just how toxic this brand of politics has become. Chaffetz spent two years haranguing Hillary Clinton about Benghazi! as chairman of the House Oversight and Government Reform Committee. After the Access Hollywood tape came out, Chaffetz distanced himself from Trump and said he was preparing for "years" of investigating the expected Clinton White House. Chaffetz said Clinton was " a target-rich environment. Even before we get to Day One, we’ve got two years’ worth of material already lined up. She has four years of history at the State Department, and it ain’t good."
Of course, when Trump got elected, Chaffetz did nothing to investigate Trump's ethics violations or Michael Flynn's apparent treason. Just six month's into his two year term, Chaffetz abruptly retired and became a Fox News contributor. Chaffetz clearly had no interest in engaging in actual governance. His entire raison d'etre was to destroy Hillary Clinton. When that was no longer an option, he simply took the money and ran. This was dominance politics to the max.
Make no mistake, if Trump and the GOP can ram through the Kavanaugh confirmation, it will only embolden their brand of dominance politics, with the Mueller investigation probably being the next victim. And dominance politics, when practiced by a party with virtually all the political power, largely gained through gerrymandering, voter suppression, and a defective electoral system, very much resembles authoritarianism.
Monday, September 24, 2018
What Exactly Just Happened?
Rod Rosenstein has apparently not resigned or been fired and is continuing in his role as Deputy Attorney General. He is scheduled to meet with Trump on Thursday. So what exactly happened this morning? I expect that we won't know the entire story until history is written a few years from now. But there are some reasonable explanations that are reinforced by Trump's prior actions.
There is obviously a group, either inside the White House and/or well-connected outside the building, that wants Sessions, Rosenstein, and presumably Mueller gone. Sessions' departure after the midterms is almost accepted as a fait accompli right now. The leak regarding Rosenstein's discussions of wearing a wire and the 25th Amendment was presumably part of this cabal's plan to undermine Rosenstein and perhaps get him to resign and/or lay the groundwork for his firing. Whether Trump was on board with this plan is unclear but it would fit his modus operandi to not be around when an important member of his administration was fired or forced to resign.
There is no getting around the fact that multiple sources within the White House expected Rosenstein either to resign or get fired when he came to the White House this morning. The leaking of his willingness to resign may have actually been designed to force the resignation itself. But apparently Rosenstein had no intention of resigning and seems to have expected he would be fired when he arrived at the White House. When Rosenstein refused to resign, the White House apparently couldn't pull the trigger and fire him. Whether that is because Kelly refused to follow the President's instructions to do so or whether Trump was actually talked out of this action by other advisers is something we probably won't know soon. But it is clear that the White House backed down from firing Rosenstein and, for the moment, he remains in place.
But the brouhaha over Rosenstein today and the fact that he will meet with the President on Thursday also highlights another element that may be in play here, namely the Kavanaugh confirmation. According to Gabriel Sherman, Trump's "The strategy was to try and do something really big" in order to distract from the cratering Kavanaugh nomination. This was especially important after a second, potentially third, and now possibly fourth witness came forward with stories about Kavanaugh's sexual abuse in his younger days. Certainly, the Rosenstein non-event managed to dominate the news this morning and take much of the focus off the accusation by Deborah Ramirez.
Additionally, Thursday's meeting between Rosenstein and the President will take some of the focus away from the expected testimony of Christine Blasey Ford. In another move that will slightly minimize the impact of that testimony, Seung Min Kim is reporting that the hearing will be held in an extremely small hearing room where only about two dozen members of the press will be allowed in. Presumably, this is being done to honor Ford's request not to turn the hearing into a media circus.
All of this is classic Trump modus operandi. Creating outrage and media events in order to deflect from serious charges is a Trump specialty. So is not having the guts to fire anyone directly, leaving it instead to one of his subordinates. Down the road, I expect we will find out that this is what happened today.
Importantly, however, that does not mean that Rosenstein is in any way safe. Rather, what happened today may simply be looked upon as an abortive trial run for when Rosenstein and Sessions are forced to leave after the midterms.
There is obviously a group, either inside the White House and/or well-connected outside the building, that wants Sessions, Rosenstein, and presumably Mueller gone. Sessions' departure after the midterms is almost accepted as a fait accompli right now. The leak regarding Rosenstein's discussions of wearing a wire and the 25th Amendment was presumably part of this cabal's plan to undermine Rosenstein and perhaps get him to resign and/or lay the groundwork for his firing. Whether Trump was on board with this plan is unclear but it would fit his modus operandi to not be around when an important member of his administration was fired or forced to resign.
There is no getting around the fact that multiple sources within the White House expected Rosenstein either to resign or get fired when he came to the White House this morning. The leaking of his willingness to resign may have actually been designed to force the resignation itself. But apparently Rosenstein had no intention of resigning and seems to have expected he would be fired when he arrived at the White House. When Rosenstein refused to resign, the White House apparently couldn't pull the trigger and fire him. Whether that is because Kelly refused to follow the President's instructions to do so or whether Trump was actually talked out of this action by other advisers is something we probably won't know soon. But it is clear that the White House backed down from firing Rosenstein and, for the moment, he remains in place.
But the brouhaha over Rosenstein today and the fact that he will meet with the President on Thursday also highlights another element that may be in play here, namely the Kavanaugh confirmation. According to Gabriel Sherman, Trump's "The strategy was to try and do something really big" in order to distract from the cratering Kavanaugh nomination. This was especially important after a second, potentially third, and now possibly fourth witness came forward with stories about Kavanaugh's sexual abuse in his younger days. Certainly, the Rosenstein non-event managed to dominate the news this morning and take much of the focus off the accusation by Deborah Ramirez.
Additionally, Thursday's meeting between Rosenstein and the President will take some of the focus away from the expected testimony of Christine Blasey Ford. In another move that will slightly minimize the impact of that testimony, Seung Min Kim is reporting that the hearing will be held in an extremely small hearing room where only about two dozen members of the press will be allowed in. Presumably, this is being done to honor Ford's request not to turn the hearing into a media circus.
All of this is classic Trump modus operandi. Creating outrage and media events in order to deflect from serious charges is a Trump specialty. So is not having the guts to fire anyone directly, leaving it instead to one of his subordinates. Down the road, I expect we will find out that this is what happened today.
Importantly, however, that does not mean that Rosenstein is in any way safe. Rather, what happened today may simply be looked upon as an abortive trial run for when Rosenstein and Sessions are forced to leave after the midterms.
History In the Balance
The moment of truth has come for the so-called moderate Republicans in the US Senate, specifically Corker, Flake, Collins, Murkowski, and, at a reach, even Graham and Sasse. Will they be part of the process that allows a multiply accused sexual predator and pervert to "plow through" and tip the ideological balance of the Supreme Court for a generation, just as they supported a multiply accused sexual predator and pervert to become the President of the United States? Will they now allow the Mueller investigation to be constrained or shut down, becoming co-conspirators in Trump's obstruction of justice and perhaps protecting the President from having the true extent of the conspiracy to influence the 2016 election with the help of a foreign power from being exposed?
There is no more time for posturing, no chance to hope the voters or prosecutors save them from these difficult choices. It is up to them. History hangs in the balance as does the future of the American experiment.
There is no more time for posturing, no chance to hope the voters or prosecutors save them from these difficult choices. It is up to them. History hangs in the balance as does the future of the American experiment.
Sunday, September 23, 2018
Natural Weekends - An Osprey Feasts
An osprey enjoying a fish dinner. Notice the crow in the upper right, looking for scraps.
Saturday, September 22, 2018
Prelude To The Final Putsch?
Even for the standards of this Trumpian era, this has been a wild week. Remarkably, the old white men in the Republican caucus are managing to offer even less respect to Christine Blasey Ford than they did to Anita Hill less than two decades ago. Essentially, Grassley and his cohorts have, from the start, set about to bully and intimidate Ford in the hopes that she won't testify. The refusal to include any other witnesses, including a named eyewitness, as well as the setting of short, artificial deadlines and the take-it-or-leave it threats are all designed to intimidate Ford again, silence her, and ensure there is no search for the truth.
In addition, the Republicans on the Judiciary Committee have already signaled that it is their intention to vote Kavanaugh out of committee and send his name to the floor for a full Senate vote, regardless of what Ford says. Yesterday Mitch McConnell told the Values Voters conference, "Here’s what I want to tell you. In the very near future, Judge Kavanaugh will be on the U.S. Supreme Court. So, my friends, keep the faith. Don’t get rattled by all this. We’re going to plow right through it and do our job."
The various defenses of Kavanaugh are also typical of the response to sexual assault allegations that women face all the time and actually undermine Kavanaugh's denials. Despite the fact that Kavanaugh categorically denies the incident happened, some of his defenders claim that it shouldn't matter because the incident was so long ago, implicitly undercutting Kavanaugh's actual defense. Kevin Cramer, who is challenging Democrat Heidi Heitkamp in one of the most competitive Senate elections in the country, declared, "They were drunk. Nothing evidently happened in it all, even by her own accusation. Again, it was supposedly an attempt, or something, that never went anywhere." Kramer is again acknowledging that something probably happened but, because the attempted rape was not successful, it's not relevant.
Finally, Ed Whelan came up with a fantastical doppelganger defense, clearly in coordination with the Republicans on the Judiciary Committee and probably Kavanaugh and the White House. After failing to sell his theory to the press, Whelan claimed the attempted rapist was actually another classmate of Kavanaugh's that looked remarkably like him. That libelous claim was thoroughly debunked and Ford herself claimed she knew both Kavanaugh and the classmate and was clear that her abuser was Kavanaugh. Whelan subsequently backed away from his claim.
At every step along the way, Republicans are angering the more educated suburban women that they will need in the upcoming election. The fact that Grassley and the Committee are doing only the most minimal investigation and Trump, an admitted serial sexual abuser himself, refuses to re-open the FBI background investigation on Kavanaugh only highlights the ways that women are silenced. Kavanaugh's acquiescence in short-cutting any investigation similarly undermines his own protestations of innocence.
And, one way or another, there will be an investigation, either when Democrats win the House or simply if Ford actually files a complaint with the Montgomery City, Maryland police. There is no statute of limitations for this kind of crime in Maryland and the chief has already stated he will investigate if a complaint is filed.
All these points highlight the misogyny that permeates the Republican party and makes it more remarkable that the GOP is even continuing down this road. Kavanaugh is already the most unpopular nominee in recent polling history but he will also taint every subsequent Supreme Court opinion on women's and minority rights in which he comprises one of the five majority votes. No matter how much Kavanaugh believes he is innocent, it is hard to believe that he insists on not withdrawing and saving the Court from that kind of stain.
Moreover, it would be so easy to toss Kavanaugh over the side and choose another equally or more conservative nominee who could easily get confirmed and probably get rammed through before the midterms. And there is no doubt that McConnell would be willing to push that nominee through during the lame duck session if he had to.
However, Kavanaugh has become more than just the fifth vote on the Supreme Court that will seal conservative control for at least a generation. It is now about proving that Trump and his ruling class of white Republican male co-conspirators can not have their authority challenged. As Albert Burneko writes, Trump and the Republicans are stating "all but explicitly We know he did this, you know he did this, everyone knows he did this, and you couldn’t stop us anyway". That is the approach of authoritarianism and the goal is to create a fait-accompli before the midterm elections.
Even as the GOP continues to try to ram Kavanaugh's confirmation through, Trump seemingly was provided the excuse he has been looking for to finally get rid of Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein who is overseeing the Mueller investigation. The New York Times reports that Rosenstein apparently discussed wearing a wire when talking to President Trump as well as the possibility of removing him via the 25th Amendment. That report is apparently backed up by contemporaneous notes from Andy McCabe. Other news reports indicate that Rosenstein's discussion of wearing a wire was sarcastic and never acted upon, as well as pointing out the virtual impossibility of Rosenstein being able to have any significant impact on the 25th Amendment process. This will add to Trump's diatribes that the deep state is out to drive him out of office. But the fact that this was leaked by second and third hand sources without indicating the sarcasm also indicates there are forces within the Republican establishment that clearly want the Mueller investigation to end.
The Times' story came out shortly after Trump had backed down from his order to declassify and release the Carter Page FISA application and texts from five FBI and DOJ officials involved in the Russia investigation. This request would either force resignations from FBI and DOJ officials for being asked to release information revealing sources and methods of intelligence activities or a refusal to release those documents, creating the opportunity for Trump to fire those refusing. Trump's alleged reason for this retreat was that "key Allies" were worried about the release, presumably because of the exposure of sources and methods, but he left open the possibility of a future declassification and release. But it also occurred also after a meeting with Rosenstein and others in the White House to discuss this very issue.
Last night it was reported that Trump was polling his advisers about whether to fire Rosenstein. Remarkably, the talking heads on Fox News were not singing from the same song sheet on this issue like they usually do. Laura Ingraham wanted Trump to fire Rosenstein while Sean Hannity warned the President not to do so, claiming that "this is all a setup" in order to get Trump to fire Rosenstein and possibly others, creating a constitutional crisis, and setting in motion Trump's removal. Lindsey Graham warned Trump to "BEWARE of anything coming out of the @nytimes." Graham, or course, has already signaled that Trump would be free to fire Jeff Sessions after the midterms.
What accounts for the reluctance to follow through on the release of classified documents and the firing of Rosenstein is unknown at this point, especially when contrasted with the full court press on getting Kavanaugh confirmed. The two most plausible theories actually end up with similar results. First, Trump and the GOP already know that, if Ford either testifies or files a complaint, Kavanaugh is toast, and attacking the Russia investigation in any extreme way right now will just make it that much more difficult to quickly confirm a replacement. The alternate theory, one that I subscribe to, is that, in order to protect as many GOP members of Congress as possible in the upcoming midterms, the purge of Sessions, Rosenstein, and Mueller will wait until after those elections. In the interim, the GOP will continue to push ahead with Kavanaugh no matter how bad it gets. If Trump and the GOP make it clear that you can't stop us by getting Kavanaugh confirmed, then it will be embolden them to shut down the Russia investigation afterward.
One last point relating to Anthony Kennedy. Most other respectable Supreme Court justices in decent physical and mental health have simply announced their retirement with the condition that they would stay on until their replacement was confirmed or providing ample time for the replacement to be confirmed, thereby allowing the Court to continue functioning with a full complement of justices as it should. But Kennedy conspired with the Trump administration to immediately retire in order to create this rush to confirm his chosen boy, Kavanaugh, by the time the new Court term began in October. It would be the ultimate irony if Kennedy's selfish decision not only meant his chosen successor was not confirmed but that it contributed to Republicans losing control of both the House and the Senate.
In addition, the Republicans on the Judiciary Committee have already signaled that it is their intention to vote Kavanaugh out of committee and send his name to the floor for a full Senate vote, regardless of what Ford says. Yesterday Mitch McConnell told the Values Voters conference, "Here’s what I want to tell you. In the very near future, Judge Kavanaugh will be on the U.S. Supreme Court. So, my friends, keep the faith. Don’t get rattled by all this. We’re going to plow right through it and do our job."
The various defenses of Kavanaugh are also typical of the response to sexual assault allegations that women face all the time and actually undermine Kavanaugh's denials. Despite the fact that Kavanaugh categorically denies the incident happened, some of his defenders claim that it shouldn't matter because the incident was so long ago, implicitly undercutting Kavanaugh's actual defense. Kevin Cramer, who is challenging Democrat Heidi Heitkamp in one of the most competitive Senate elections in the country, declared, "They were drunk. Nothing evidently happened in it all, even by her own accusation. Again, it was supposedly an attempt, or something, that never went anywhere." Kramer is again acknowledging that something probably happened but, because the attempted rape was not successful, it's not relevant.
Finally, Ed Whelan came up with a fantastical doppelganger defense, clearly in coordination with the Republicans on the Judiciary Committee and probably Kavanaugh and the White House. After failing to sell his theory to the press, Whelan claimed the attempted rapist was actually another classmate of Kavanaugh's that looked remarkably like him. That libelous claim was thoroughly debunked and Ford herself claimed she knew both Kavanaugh and the classmate and was clear that her abuser was Kavanaugh. Whelan subsequently backed away from his claim.
At every step along the way, Republicans are angering the more educated suburban women that they will need in the upcoming election. The fact that Grassley and the Committee are doing only the most minimal investigation and Trump, an admitted serial sexual abuser himself, refuses to re-open the FBI background investigation on Kavanaugh only highlights the ways that women are silenced. Kavanaugh's acquiescence in short-cutting any investigation similarly undermines his own protestations of innocence.
And, one way or another, there will be an investigation, either when Democrats win the House or simply if Ford actually files a complaint with the Montgomery City, Maryland police. There is no statute of limitations for this kind of crime in Maryland and the chief has already stated he will investigate if a complaint is filed.
All these points highlight the misogyny that permeates the Republican party and makes it more remarkable that the GOP is even continuing down this road. Kavanaugh is already the most unpopular nominee in recent polling history but he will also taint every subsequent Supreme Court opinion on women's and minority rights in which he comprises one of the five majority votes. No matter how much Kavanaugh believes he is innocent, it is hard to believe that he insists on not withdrawing and saving the Court from that kind of stain.
Moreover, it would be so easy to toss Kavanaugh over the side and choose another equally or more conservative nominee who could easily get confirmed and probably get rammed through before the midterms. And there is no doubt that McConnell would be willing to push that nominee through during the lame duck session if he had to.
However, Kavanaugh has become more than just the fifth vote on the Supreme Court that will seal conservative control for at least a generation. It is now about proving that Trump and his ruling class of white Republican male co-conspirators can not have their authority challenged. As Albert Burneko writes, Trump and the Republicans are stating "all but explicitly We know he did this, you know he did this, everyone knows he did this, and you couldn’t stop us anyway". That is the approach of authoritarianism and the goal is to create a fait-accompli before the midterm elections.
Even as the GOP continues to try to ram Kavanaugh's confirmation through, Trump seemingly was provided the excuse he has been looking for to finally get rid of Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein who is overseeing the Mueller investigation. The New York Times reports that Rosenstein apparently discussed wearing a wire when talking to President Trump as well as the possibility of removing him via the 25th Amendment. That report is apparently backed up by contemporaneous notes from Andy McCabe. Other news reports indicate that Rosenstein's discussion of wearing a wire was sarcastic and never acted upon, as well as pointing out the virtual impossibility of Rosenstein being able to have any significant impact on the 25th Amendment process. This will add to Trump's diatribes that the deep state is out to drive him out of office. But the fact that this was leaked by second and third hand sources without indicating the sarcasm also indicates there are forces within the Republican establishment that clearly want the Mueller investigation to end.
The Times' story came out shortly after Trump had backed down from his order to declassify and release the Carter Page FISA application and texts from five FBI and DOJ officials involved in the Russia investigation. This request would either force resignations from FBI and DOJ officials for being asked to release information revealing sources and methods of intelligence activities or a refusal to release those documents, creating the opportunity for Trump to fire those refusing. Trump's alleged reason for this retreat was that "key Allies" were worried about the release, presumably because of the exposure of sources and methods, but he left open the possibility of a future declassification and release. But it also occurred also after a meeting with Rosenstein and others in the White House to discuss this very issue.
Last night it was reported that Trump was polling his advisers about whether to fire Rosenstein. Remarkably, the talking heads on Fox News were not singing from the same song sheet on this issue like they usually do. Laura Ingraham wanted Trump to fire Rosenstein while Sean Hannity warned the President not to do so, claiming that "this is all a setup" in order to get Trump to fire Rosenstein and possibly others, creating a constitutional crisis, and setting in motion Trump's removal. Lindsey Graham warned Trump to "BEWARE of anything coming out of the @nytimes." Graham, or course, has already signaled that Trump would be free to fire Jeff Sessions after the midterms.
What accounts for the reluctance to follow through on the release of classified documents and the firing of Rosenstein is unknown at this point, especially when contrasted with the full court press on getting Kavanaugh confirmed. The two most plausible theories actually end up with similar results. First, Trump and the GOP already know that, if Ford either testifies or files a complaint, Kavanaugh is toast, and attacking the Russia investigation in any extreme way right now will just make it that much more difficult to quickly confirm a replacement. The alternate theory, one that I subscribe to, is that, in order to protect as many GOP members of Congress as possible in the upcoming midterms, the purge of Sessions, Rosenstein, and Mueller will wait until after those elections. In the interim, the GOP will continue to push ahead with Kavanaugh no matter how bad it gets. If Trump and the GOP make it clear that you can't stop us by getting Kavanaugh confirmed, then it will be embolden them to shut down the Russia investigation afterward.
One last point relating to Anthony Kennedy. Most other respectable Supreme Court justices in decent physical and mental health have simply announced their retirement with the condition that they would stay on until their replacement was confirmed or providing ample time for the replacement to be confirmed, thereby allowing the Court to continue functioning with a full complement of justices as it should. But Kennedy conspired with the Trump administration to immediately retire in order to create this rush to confirm his chosen boy, Kavanaugh, by the time the new Court term began in October. It would be the ultimate irony if Kennedy's selfish decision not only meant his chosen successor was not confirmed but that it contributed to Republicans losing control of both the House and the Senate.
Friday, September 21, 2018
Legal, But Impossible - GOP's New Authoritarian Strategy
Under Leonid Brezhnev in the early 1970s, the Soviet Union introduced what was known as the "diploma tax", which forced those people who wanted to emigrate from the Soviet Union to pay a fee supposedly equivalent to the cost of the free education they had received from the country. That fee was around 80 times the average Soviet's monthly salary. The purpose of the "diploma tax" was primarily to stop Jews, especially the more educated ones, from emigrating from the country. As far as the Soviets were concerned, Jews were allowed to emigrate as long as they paid the tax, which, for many, was unaffordable. The tax may have been effective at suppressing the brain drain that Brezhnev feared but it didn't stop the flow of less educated Jews out of the country and, under international pressure, its enforcement was subsequently abandoned.
It is remarkable how many current Republican policies and actions resemble the kind of authoritarian tactics illustrated by the diploma tax, namely declaring something technically legal but making it almost impossible to do or get. For example, take a look at what happened in Alabama after the state passed its voter ID law in 2011. In September, 2016, the state announced the closure of 31 offices throughout the state where its citizens could get driver's licenses, leaving a full 28 counties in the state without any office. Since driver's licenses are the primary means of obtaining a government-issued voter ID that satisfy voting requirements, that creates a real problem for those living in those counties. Worse, those counties comprise most of the rural parts of the state predominately inhabited by the poorest Alabamans and minorities. Legal challenges and popular backlash eventually forced the state to revise these plans, but it was clearly a tactic the Republican legislature designed with the specific intent of keeping certain of its citizens from voting.
A similar situation occurred in Georgia this year but, in this instance, the tactic was to restrict access to actual polling places. A plan to close seven of nine polling stations in the predominantly minority Randolph County was again rebuffed by public outcry and outrage. But the fact remains that 8% of the state's polling stations have closed in the wake of the Supreme Court's gutting of the Voting Rights Act in 2013. One third of the counties in the state have fewer polling stations than they did in 2012 and over half of those counties have significant minority populations.
Yet another example exists in Arkansas right now. There, the Republican-controlled government instituted strict work requirements for those who receive Medicaid. The program began in June and already over 4,300 Arkansans have lost their Medicaid eligibility compared to the 1,000 recipients who finally found jobs. Part of the requirement is that every eligible recipient has to go online and report their hours of work or community service every month. The absurdity behind this policy is that over 25% of Arkansans do not have access to the internet. And those with cell phones primarily are on limited plans so that they actually have to pay the telecom provider in order to comply with the law. Needless to say, the areas of the state with no internet service tend to be the poorer, rural communities where the population is more likely to need Medicaid services. Beyond highlighting the need for government sponsored rural broadband and the telecom oligarchy, it is yet another example of Republicans setting up a program with which it is extraordinarily difficult for the most vulnerable to comply with.
Recently, it appears that the Trump administration is denying passports to people with valid US birth certificates but who were birthed using a midwife rather than within the traditional US medical industrial complex. The ostensible reason for this policy is a question about the validity of the birth certificates for those born in the 1940s and 1950s near the Mexican border. According to one woman, whose parents were born and raised in Kansas, where she was also born, and whose birth certificate had been rejected, was then asked to provide "Border crossing card or green card for your parents issued prior to your birth? My parents were born in the United States….Early religious records? We don’t have any. Family Bible? They won’t accept a birth certificate but they will accept a family Bible?". We have apparently gotten to the point where legal US documents are not considered valid if you were birthed outside the medical industrial complex either because of culture or cost.
A more bizarre situation is occurring with ICE. Apparently, the agency is ordering immigrants to appear at hearings that haven't been scheduled, on dates that don't exist, and at times when court is not in session. According to the Dallas Morning News, "the orders to appear are not fake, but ICE never coordinated or cleared the dates with the immigration courts...Some immigrants have even been given documents ordering them to be in court at midnight, on weekends and on a date the doesn't exist: Sept. 31." The issue seems to have been triggered by a Supreme Court ruling that an ICE order to appear actually contain a date and a time. In response, ICE is apparently inserting random dates and times on their orders in order to comply with the law but not coordinating it with the actual court holding the hearing. For some immigrants, complying with these "fake orders" means traveling hundreds of miles only to find out they never had to be there in the first place. And who wants to wager that at least one of these immigrants will eventually be detained by ICE for "skipping" an order to appear that was impossible to comply with?
Of course, the area where Republicans have been using this tactic for years is in the area of women's rights, specifically abortion. In Texas, the GOP-controlled government passed legislation that cut the number of abortion clinics in the state down to five. Ten urban areas required a drive of over 100 miles in order to just get to a clinic and citizens of Lubbock had to travel over 300 miles. Studies have shown that a distance of over 100 miles reduces legal abortions by one-third and trips of over 200 miles cut the number in half. This draconian law was eventually struck down by the Supreme Court but many of the clinics did not re-open leaving huge swaths of the state without a legal abortion provider.
However, Republicans are nothing but persistent, if not creative. The Eight Circuit Court of Appeals recently agreed that a Missouri law that had the same two provisions as the unconstitutional Texas law, requiring abortion doctors to have admitting privileges at a nearby hospital and applying the same standards for ambulatory surgical facilities to abortion clinics, was in fact constitutional. This absurd decision was purely intended to tee this tactic up once again for the newly constituted Supreme Court to declare constitutional now.
Across the policy spectrum, Republican tactics are mirroring the "diploma tax", maintaining a fiction of fairness and legality while effectively foreclosing the exercise of that right. Sure, you can leave the Soviet Union, just pay the tax. Sure, you are entitled to vote, just get a valid ID from an office nowhere near you and go to your assigned polling place which is also nowhere near you. Sure you can get a passport, as long as you are not birthed a certain way because of culture or cost. Sure, you're entitled to Medicaid, as long as you report online from an area where there's no internet service. And sure, you have the right to an abortion, but you'll have to travel hundreds of miles to get it.
It is remarkable how many current Republican policies and actions resemble the kind of authoritarian tactics illustrated by the diploma tax, namely declaring something technically legal but making it almost impossible to do or get. For example, take a look at what happened in Alabama after the state passed its voter ID law in 2011. In September, 2016, the state announced the closure of 31 offices throughout the state where its citizens could get driver's licenses, leaving a full 28 counties in the state without any office. Since driver's licenses are the primary means of obtaining a government-issued voter ID that satisfy voting requirements, that creates a real problem for those living in those counties. Worse, those counties comprise most of the rural parts of the state predominately inhabited by the poorest Alabamans and minorities. Legal challenges and popular backlash eventually forced the state to revise these plans, but it was clearly a tactic the Republican legislature designed with the specific intent of keeping certain of its citizens from voting.
A similar situation occurred in Georgia this year but, in this instance, the tactic was to restrict access to actual polling places. A plan to close seven of nine polling stations in the predominantly minority Randolph County was again rebuffed by public outcry and outrage. But the fact remains that 8% of the state's polling stations have closed in the wake of the Supreme Court's gutting of the Voting Rights Act in 2013. One third of the counties in the state have fewer polling stations than they did in 2012 and over half of those counties have significant minority populations.
Yet another example exists in Arkansas right now. There, the Republican-controlled government instituted strict work requirements for those who receive Medicaid. The program began in June and already over 4,300 Arkansans have lost their Medicaid eligibility compared to the 1,000 recipients who finally found jobs. Part of the requirement is that every eligible recipient has to go online and report their hours of work or community service every month. The absurdity behind this policy is that over 25% of Arkansans do not have access to the internet. And those with cell phones primarily are on limited plans so that they actually have to pay the telecom provider in order to comply with the law. Needless to say, the areas of the state with no internet service tend to be the poorer, rural communities where the population is more likely to need Medicaid services. Beyond highlighting the need for government sponsored rural broadband and the telecom oligarchy, it is yet another example of Republicans setting up a program with which it is extraordinarily difficult for the most vulnerable to comply with.
Recently, it appears that the Trump administration is denying passports to people with valid US birth certificates but who were birthed using a midwife rather than within the traditional US medical industrial complex. The ostensible reason for this policy is a question about the validity of the birth certificates for those born in the 1940s and 1950s near the Mexican border. According to one woman, whose parents were born and raised in Kansas, where she was also born, and whose birth certificate had been rejected, was then asked to provide "Border crossing card or green card for your parents issued prior to your birth? My parents were born in the United States….Early religious records? We don’t have any. Family Bible? They won’t accept a birth certificate but they will accept a family Bible?". We have apparently gotten to the point where legal US documents are not considered valid if you were birthed outside the medical industrial complex either because of culture or cost.
A more bizarre situation is occurring with ICE. Apparently, the agency is ordering immigrants to appear at hearings that haven't been scheduled, on dates that don't exist, and at times when court is not in session. According to the Dallas Morning News, "the orders to appear are not fake, but ICE never coordinated or cleared the dates with the immigration courts...Some immigrants have even been given documents ordering them to be in court at midnight, on weekends and on a date the doesn't exist: Sept. 31." The issue seems to have been triggered by a Supreme Court ruling that an ICE order to appear actually contain a date and a time. In response, ICE is apparently inserting random dates and times on their orders in order to comply with the law but not coordinating it with the actual court holding the hearing. For some immigrants, complying with these "fake orders" means traveling hundreds of miles only to find out they never had to be there in the first place. And who wants to wager that at least one of these immigrants will eventually be detained by ICE for "skipping" an order to appear that was impossible to comply with?
Of course, the area where Republicans have been using this tactic for years is in the area of women's rights, specifically abortion. In Texas, the GOP-controlled government passed legislation that cut the number of abortion clinics in the state down to five. Ten urban areas required a drive of over 100 miles in order to just get to a clinic and citizens of Lubbock had to travel over 300 miles. Studies have shown that a distance of over 100 miles reduces legal abortions by one-third and trips of over 200 miles cut the number in half. This draconian law was eventually struck down by the Supreme Court but many of the clinics did not re-open leaving huge swaths of the state without a legal abortion provider.
However, Republicans are nothing but persistent, if not creative. The Eight Circuit Court of Appeals recently agreed that a Missouri law that had the same two provisions as the unconstitutional Texas law, requiring abortion doctors to have admitting privileges at a nearby hospital and applying the same standards for ambulatory surgical facilities to abortion clinics, was in fact constitutional. This absurd decision was purely intended to tee this tactic up once again for the newly constituted Supreme Court to declare constitutional now.
Across the policy spectrum, Republican tactics are mirroring the "diploma tax", maintaining a fiction of fairness and legality while effectively foreclosing the exercise of that right. Sure, you can leave the Soviet Union, just pay the tax. Sure, you are entitled to vote, just get a valid ID from an office nowhere near you and go to your assigned polling place which is also nowhere near you. Sure you can get a passport, as long as you are not birthed a certain way because of culture or cost. Sure, you're entitled to Medicaid, as long as you report online from an area where there's no internet service. And sure, you have the right to an abortion, but you'll have to travel hundreds of miles to get it.
Thursday, September 20, 2018
Astronomy Adventure - Messier 15
Messier 15 is a globular cluster in the constellation Pegasus. It is among the oldest globular clusters, around 12 billion years old.
Technical details:
Scope: Starblast 4.5; tracking on
Magnification: ~30x
Camera: iPhone6 using NightCap Pro; ISO 8000;
Wednesday, September 19, 2018
Trump Will Take Us All Into The Abyss
Unlike Richard Nixon, Donald Trump will not fly off into the sunset. And, with the complicity of the corrupt, unaccountable, and power-obsessed Republican party, Trump will take this entire country down with him along with the corrupt, unaccountable, and power-obsessed Republican party. Trump and the GOP would rather destroy this country, our democracy, and everything it has stood for than give up their power.
First and foremost, Donald Trump is a racketeer, specializing in extortion, bribery, and money laundering. He, and his son-in-law Jared, treat every problem as though they were getting rid of an unwanted tenant in one of their buildings. The modus operandi is to make life as miserable as possible for the tenant until they leave and go find somewhere else to live. And Trump prefers to only work with people he can control. That leaves his family and others who engage in shady or criminal behavior that Trump can threaten to expose to keep them in line, which explains why most of his original cabinet was filled with crooks. But he also has no problem working with people of good character as long as they support the same goal as he does. Once that goal is reached, they are quickly disposed of.
Brett Kavanaugh was only selected by Trump because he has made it clear that a sitting President should not be burdened by "civil suits, criminal investigations, or criminal prosecutions". The fact that Kavanaugh is apparently a pretty consistent liar and now an accused attempted rapist only makes him a more appealing and controllable choice in Trump's mind. As Mitch McConnell pointed out, there were plenty of other choices that would fulfill the Republicans' desire for a fifth vote on the Supreme Court to ensure a conservative majority for the next generation or more that would have been far easier to confirm. But none of them provided the protection that Trump demands.
All that Republicans really want as the swing vote on the Court is a reliable hack that will overturn the decisions made in Reconstruction, the Progressive Era, and the New Deal, eviscerating the rights of women, immigrants, minorities, workers, and voters, and guaranteeing the continued tyranny of two minorities, the white male and the capital class.
That means feeding their racist, nationalist, misogynistic, evangelical base by overturning or gutting Roe v. Wade, restoring men's control over women's bodies. It means expanding the Muslim ban and allowing the creation of an American gulag for undocumented immigrants to be held indefinitely and where children can be separated and abused, feeding the profits of the corporate incarceration machine. It means treating those birthed by midwives as second class citizens by denying them passports and even potentially repealing birthright citizenship entirely.
The capital and shareholder class is mainly interested in is the repeal of the Chevron deference which requires the judicial branch to defer to federal agencies in interpreting how that agency should use its regulatory authority in cases where the specific law is ambiguous or is silent. Repealing Chevron would gut the regulatory capabilities of federal agencies, a devastating blow to workers, consumers, and the environment and virtually encode into law the socialization of the externalities of corporate activity such as the devastating effects of climate change.
That fifth vote on the Court will also finally eviscerate the remainder of the Voting Rights Act (VRA), allow further voting restrictions, and refuse to rein in the extreme partisan gerrymandering. Republicans had already figured out how to effectively neuter judicial oversight of elections but the conservative majority on the Court will allow them to further restrict the franchise to an electorate they choose. In just five states, over three million voters have been "disappeared" from the voting rolls. Nearly one thousand polling stations have been closed since the Court struck down key provisions of the VRA. These actions, combined with the structural flaws in our electoral systems such as the Electoral College, will allow a conservative minority made up of the GOP's white nationalist base and the capital class to continue to wield majority power.
That capital class will continue to bilk the country out of trillions through tax cuts tilted toward the top 1%. As the deficits and debt explode, they will once again demand the dismantling of Medicaid, Medicare, and Social Security in order to "get our fiscal house in order". It is a game they have been playing with different degrees of success since Ronald Reagan.
With the judicial branch effectively neutralized and filled with conservative hacks, the assault on the rule of law will only become more brazen. Trump's order to the DOJ to release the classified portions of Carter Page's FISA warrant as well as the texts of most of the principals in the Russian investigation including Comey, McCabe, Strzok, Lisa Page, and Ohr is an unprecedented abuse of presidential power and blatant obstruction of justice of an ongoing investigation, obviously designed to put Rod Rosenstein in the position of refusing an illegal order or resigning. It is Trump's opening salvo in shutting down the Mueller investigation now that it is clear that Flynn has fully cooperated, Manafort has flipped, and Cohen is talking to Mueller. Republicans in the Senate have already made it clear that replacing Sessions, and, by extension, restricting or ending the Mueller investigation, would be perfectly acceptable after the midterm elections.
Just to show just how far the rot has set in the Republican party, Trump's release of these classified materials and texts is being done in a conspiracy with Republican members of the House Intelligence Committee, which includes a multiply and credibly accused enabler of sexual harassment, Jim Jordan, who will receive a significant number of votes to replace Paul Ryan as Speaker. In addition, Lindsey Graham, that supposed reasonable moderate, recently stated that lying to the FBI is really not that big a deal.
All of this provides some extraordinary challenges for our country and our democracy on the domestic front. But Trump's extortionary tactics are also doing serious damage to America in the arena of foreign policy. Almost from the outset of his term, virtually every action Trump has taken has managed to alienate our allies and often strengthen our enemies. His disastrous phone call with Malcolm Turnbull, withdrawal from TPP, and war of words with North Korea all managed to cede power in Asia to the Chinese. Trump's refusal to affirm his commitment to Article V of NATO as well as declaring it "obsolete" and bad-mouthing the EU have convinced the Europeans that America is no longer a reliable partner. That was only reinforced by his unilateral decision to withdraw from the Paris Climate Agreement and the Iran nuclear deal, as well as the decision to move the US Embassy to Jerusalem. Finally, Trump's continual threats to withdraw from NAFTA and largely baseless accusations against Canada have antagonized our two nearest neighbors.
Trump's tariff wars are essentially forcing US consumers to pay an additional tax for what is essentially political grandstanding. It is already killing American farmers and will only get worse with the announcement of another new round of tariffs on $200 billion more of Chinese goods. Take a look at the change in farm income around the country over the last year:
This is devastating the farm sector and is unsustainable. Yes, China will get to a point when it can not retaliate dollar for dollar with Trump's tariffs. But which country do you think can endure the pain of this trade war longer, the Chinese with a powerful authoritarian government or Trump's rural base? But do you think Trump will back down?
All of this brings is to the most dangerous development of them all as the world responds to the Trump presidency. This month, Germany, France, Britain, China, and Russia all met with the goal of creating a special payments channel that would be segregated from the US banking system and would not use the US Dollar. As John Judis writes, this is "happening largely in response to Trump’s Hobbesian diplomacy, which sees the U.S. engaged in a zero-sum battle against its longtime allies as well as against competitors like China and also by his fiscal policies that promise huge deficits in years ahead." For the Europeans, this channel would be necessary to avoid the US sanctions on doing business with Iran. For the Russians, it is also a method to avoid US sanctions. And for the Chinese, it is yet another attempt to dislodge the US Dollar as the reserve currency of the world, a position its held for nearly the last century. Earlier, China and Russia agreed that all their commercial transactions would avoid the use of the US Dollar.
The last prior challenge to the Dollar was the creation of the Euro in 1999, but the EU had no intention of actually replacing the US Dollar as the reserve currency. China and the EU are the second and third largest markets in the world and combined they make up a larger market than the US. The possibility that they would be working together to break from the US-dominated monetary system is a threat that must be taken seriously. If this attempt is successful, the impact on the American economy would be catastrophic, as the borrowing costs to finance our structural trade and account deficits would skyrocket.
As Taggart Murphy notes, "Trump is doing everything he can to bring on the end of the days when the US can borrow whatever it wants in whatever amounts it wants...if your assignment were to bring the curtain down on that...you’d start by doing everything that Trump is doing — pick fights with all your allies, blow the government deficit wide open at the peak of an economic recovery, abandon any notion of fiscal responsibility, threaten sanctions on anyone and everyone who seeks to honor the deal Obama struck with Iran (thereby almost begging everyone to figure out some way to bypass the US banking system in order to do business), throw spanners into the works of global trade without any clear indication of what it is precisely you want."
The dollar is so entrenched in the world's monetary system that replacing it will be a tall task. But Trump has given two of the largest markets in the world multiple incentives to do so. And if they succeed, think of where that will leave the US.
On the domestic front, those increased borrowing costs would lead to a deep and painful recession with an already decimated farming sector. The government would be controlled by an increasingly authoritarian minority party, largely run to the advantage for the benefit of the oligarchic capital class, with an ineffective and compliant judiciary.
In foreign policy, our soft power would have already largely evaporated because of the decimation of the State Department and our abandonment of our allies and our principles. Any residual soft power would disintegrate with the replacement of the dollar. That would leave us with our overwhelming military strength as our only real lever of power. In other words, we would become a larger version of what Russia is today.
You may say that this is an overly apocalyptic vision and you might be right. But it is a future that is far more likely today than it was before Donald Trump is elected. And Trump still can inflict much more damage and probably will as he desperately tries to maintain power in the face of the Mueller investigation and possible Democratic investigations if they can win one or both houses of Congress. But even if this dystopian vision never comes to pass, Trump has already inflicted enough damage that it may take a generation for America to recover, if ever.
First and foremost, Donald Trump is a racketeer, specializing in extortion, bribery, and money laundering. He, and his son-in-law Jared, treat every problem as though they were getting rid of an unwanted tenant in one of their buildings. The modus operandi is to make life as miserable as possible for the tenant until they leave and go find somewhere else to live. And Trump prefers to only work with people he can control. That leaves his family and others who engage in shady or criminal behavior that Trump can threaten to expose to keep them in line, which explains why most of his original cabinet was filled with crooks. But he also has no problem working with people of good character as long as they support the same goal as he does. Once that goal is reached, they are quickly disposed of.
Brett Kavanaugh was only selected by Trump because he has made it clear that a sitting President should not be burdened by "civil suits, criminal investigations, or criminal prosecutions". The fact that Kavanaugh is apparently a pretty consistent liar and now an accused attempted rapist only makes him a more appealing and controllable choice in Trump's mind. As Mitch McConnell pointed out, there were plenty of other choices that would fulfill the Republicans' desire for a fifth vote on the Supreme Court to ensure a conservative majority for the next generation or more that would have been far easier to confirm. But none of them provided the protection that Trump demands.
All that Republicans really want as the swing vote on the Court is a reliable hack that will overturn the decisions made in Reconstruction, the Progressive Era, and the New Deal, eviscerating the rights of women, immigrants, minorities, workers, and voters, and guaranteeing the continued tyranny of two minorities, the white male and the capital class.
That means feeding their racist, nationalist, misogynistic, evangelical base by overturning or gutting Roe v. Wade, restoring men's control over women's bodies. It means expanding the Muslim ban and allowing the creation of an American gulag for undocumented immigrants to be held indefinitely and where children can be separated and abused, feeding the profits of the corporate incarceration machine. It means treating those birthed by midwives as second class citizens by denying them passports and even potentially repealing birthright citizenship entirely.
The capital and shareholder class is mainly interested in is the repeal of the Chevron deference which requires the judicial branch to defer to federal agencies in interpreting how that agency should use its regulatory authority in cases where the specific law is ambiguous or is silent. Repealing Chevron would gut the regulatory capabilities of federal agencies, a devastating blow to workers, consumers, and the environment and virtually encode into law the socialization of the externalities of corporate activity such as the devastating effects of climate change.
That fifth vote on the Court will also finally eviscerate the remainder of the Voting Rights Act (VRA), allow further voting restrictions, and refuse to rein in the extreme partisan gerrymandering. Republicans had already figured out how to effectively neuter judicial oversight of elections but the conservative majority on the Court will allow them to further restrict the franchise to an electorate they choose. In just five states, over three million voters have been "disappeared" from the voting rolls. Nearly one thousand polling stations have been closed since the Court struck down key provisions of the VRA. These actions, combined with the structural flaws in our electoral systems such as the Electoral College, will allow a conservative minority made up of the GOP's white nationalist base and the capital class to continue to wield majority power.
That capital class will continue to bilk the country out of trillions through tax cuts tilted toward the top 1%. As the deficits and debt explode, they will once again demand the dismantling of Medicaid, Medicare, and Social Security in order to "get our fiscal house in order". It is a game they have been playing with different degrees of success since Ronald Reagan.
With the judicial branch effectively neutralized and filled with conservative hacks, the assault on the rule of law will only become more brazen. Trump's order to the DOJ to release the classified portions of Carter Page's FISA warrant as well as the texts of most of the principals in the Russian investigation including Comey, McCabe, Strzok, Lisa Page, and Ohr is an unprecedented abuse of presidential power and blatant obstruction of justice of an ongoing investigation, obviously designed to put Rod Rosenstein in the position of refusing an illegal order or resigning. It is Trump's opening salvo in shutting down the Mueller investigation now that it is clear that Flynn has fully cooperated, Manafort has flipped, and Cohen is talking to Mueller. Republicans in the Senate have already made it clear that replacing Sessions, and, by extension, restricting or ending the Mueller investigation, would be perfectly acceptable after the midterm elections.
Just to show just how far the rot has set in the Republican party, Trump's release of these classified materials and texts is being done in a conspiracy with Republican members of the House Intelligence Committee, which includes a multiply and credibly accused enabler of sexual harassment, Jim Jordan, who will receive a significant number of votes to replace Paul Ryan as Speaker. In addition, Lindsey Graham, that supposed reasonable moderate, recently stated that lying to the FBI is really not that big a deal.
All of this provides some extraordinary challenges for our country and our democracy on the domestic front. But Trump's extortionary tactics are also doing serious damage to America in the arena of foreign policy. Almost from the outset of his term, virtually every action Trump has taken has managed to alienate our allies and often strengthen our enemies. His disastrous phone call with Malcolm Turnbull, withdrawal from TPP, and war of words with North Korea all managed to cede power in Asia to the Chinese. Trump's refusal to affirm his commitment to Article V of NATO as well as declaring it "obsolete" and bad-mouthing the EU have convinced the Europeans that America is no longer a reliable partner. That was only reinforced by his unilateral decision to withdraw from the Paris Climate Agreement and the Iran nuclear deal, as well as the decision to move the US Embassy to Jerusalem. Finally, Trump's continual threats to withdraw from NAFTA and largely baseless accusations against Canada have antagonized our two nearest neighbors.
Trump's tariff wars are essentially forcing US consumers to pay an additional tax for what is essentially political grandstanding. It is already killing American farmers and will only get worse with the announcement of another new round of tariffs on $200 billion more of Chinese goods. Take a look at the change in farm income around the country over the last year:
This is devastating the farm sector and is unsustainable. Yes, China will get to a point when it can not retaliate dollar for dollar with Trump's tariffs. But which country do you think can endure the pain of this trade war longer, the Chinese with a powerful authoritarian government or Trump's rural base? But do you think Trump will back down?
All of this brings is to the most dangerous development of them all as the world responds to the Trump presidency. This month, Germany, France, Britain, China, and Russia all met with the goal of creating a special payments channel that would be segregated from the US banking system and would not use the US Dollar. As John Judis writes, this is "happening largely in response to Trump’s Hobbesian diplomacy, which sees the U.S. engaged in a zero-sum battle against its longtime allies as well as against competitors like China and also by his fiscal policies that promise huge deficits in years ahead." For the Europeans, this channel would be necessary to avoid the US sanctions on doing business with Iran. For the Russians, it is also a method to avoid US sanctions. And for the Chinese, it is yet another attempt to dislodge the US Dollar as the reserve currency of the world, a position its held for nearly the last century. Earlier, China and Russia agreed that all their commercial transactions would avoid the use of the US Dollar.
The last prior challenge to the Dollar was the creation of the Euro in 1999, but the EU had no intention of actually replacing the US Dollar as the reserve currency. China and the EU are the second and third largest markets in the world and combined they make up a larger market than the US. The possibility that they would be working together to break from the US-dominated monetary system is a threat that must be taken seriously. If this attempt is successful, the impact on the American economy would be catastrophic, as the borrowing costs to finance our structural trade and account deficits would skyrocket.
As Taggart Murphy notes, "Trump is doing everything he can to bring on the end of the days when the US can borrow whatever it wants in whatever amounts it wants...if your assignment were to bring the curtain down on that...you’d start by doing everything that Trump is doing — pick fights with all your allies, blow the government deficit wide open at the peak of an economic recovery, abandon any notion of fiscal responsibility, threaten sanctions on anyone and everyone who seeks to honor the deal Obama struck with Iran (thereby almost begging everyone to figure out some way to bypass the US banking system in order to do business), throw spanners into the works of global trade without any clear indication of what it is precisely you want."
The dollar is so entrenched in the world's monetary system that replacing it will be a tall task. But Trump has given two of the largest markets in the world multiple incentives to do so. And if they succeed, think of where that will leave the US.
On the domestic front, those increased borrowing costs would lead to a deep and painful recession with an already decimated farming sector. The government would be controlled by an increasingly authoritarian minority party, largely run to the advantage for the benefit of the oligarchic capital class, with an ineffective and compliant judiciary.
In foreign policy, our soft power would have already largely evaporated because of the decimation of the State Department and our abandonment of our allies and our principles. Any residual soft power would disintegrate with the replacement of the dollar. That would leave us with our overwhelming military strength as our only real lever of power. In other words, we would become a larger version of what Russia is today.
You may say that this is an overly apocalyptic vision and you might be right. But it is a future that is far more likely today than it was before Donald Trump is elected. And Trump still can inflict much more damage and probably will as he desperately tries to maintain power in the face of the Mueller investigation and possible Democratic investigations if they can win one or both houses of Congress. But even if this dystopian vision never comes to pass, Trump has already inflicted enough damage that it may take a generation for America to recover, if ever.
Monday, September 17, 2018
Replaying Clarence Thomas, With A Twist
It looks like we are going to have a replay of the Clarence Thomas confirmation hearings, 27 years on. The White House has made clear that it has no intention of pulling Kavanaugh's confirmation after the woman who has accused him of attempted rape stepped forward. And Kavanaugh himself is doubling down on his innocence, this morning tweeting "This is a completely false allegation. I have never done anything like what the accuser describes." It's not quite as dramatic as Thomas' "high-tech lynching" but just as forceful.
As with Thomas, there is a fair amount of circumstantial information supporting the accuser's claim. Anita Hill's accusation was backed up by at least three other women who had similar experiences of sexual harassment by Thomas. In this case, according to Ford, there is one witness to the attack, Mark Judge, a friend and prep school classmate of Kavanaugh's at the time. But Judge may not be the best witness for Kavanaugh, having admitted to being a black-out drunk at prep school and having written a thinly-veiled novel about it in which a drunken "Bart O'Kavanaugh" was said to have puked in someone's car. And Kavanaugh certainly hasn't helped his own credibility with his blatant obfuscations and lies during the hearings.
So, like the Thomas hearings, this will come down to a he said/she said moment. And the White House is betting that they can bully their way through this like they did with Thomas. But this time, perhaps, the votes of a bunch of old white men may not be enough to get Kavanaugh confirmed. If the Democrats hold firm, and that's a big if, it will really be up to two Republican women, Lisa Murkowski and Susan Collins, to determine Kavanaugh's fate. In this #MeToo era, the pressure on them will be enormous. But simply the fact that it will actually be women who make this critical decision is an improvement over where we were in 1981.
As with Thomas, there is a fair amount of circumstantial information supporting the accuser's claim. Anita Hill's accusation was backed up by at least three other women who had similar experiences of sexual harassment by Thomas. In this case, according to Ford, there is one witness to the attack, Mark Judge, a friend and prep school classmate of Kavanaugh's at the time. But Judge may not be the best witness for Kavanaugh, having admitted to being a black-out drunk at prep school and having written a thinly-veiled novel about it in which a drunken "Bart O'Kavanaugh" was said to have puked in someone's car. And Kavanaugh certainly hasn't helped his own credibility with his blatant obfuscations and lies during the hearings.
So, like the Thomas hearings, this will come down to a he said/she said moment. And the White House is betting that they can bully their way through this like they did with Thomas. But this time, perhaps, the votes of a bunch of old white men may not be enough to get Kavanaugh confirmed. If the Democrats hold firm, and that's a big if, it will really be up to two Republican women, Lisa Murkowski and Susan Collins, to determine Kavanaugh's fate. In this #MeToo era, the pressure on them will be enormous. But simply the fact that it will actually be women who make this critical decision is an improvement over where we were in 1981.
Sunday, September 16, 2018
Astronomy Adventure - Messier 30
Messier 30 (the fuzzy object in the middle of the photo) is a globular cluster in the constellation Capricorn. Not only is it one of the highest density clusters, its motion indicates it was probably acquired by the Milky Way from a satellite galaxy.
Technical details:
Technical details:
Scope: Starblast 4.5; tracking on
Magnification: ~30x
Camera: iPhone6 using NightCap Pro; ISO 8000;
